SPMO

Fed Meeting Preview: Unexpected Macro Data Likely To Alter Fedspeak

US economy grew at 1.6% in Q1 2024, the slowest rate of growth in seven quarters. The latest GDP print came in lower than expected while inflation has inched up. Changes in Fedspeak are anticipated as the Fed meets this week. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is still the labor market.

Consumers Splurge On Services, Fixed Investment Surges, Imports Drag On GDP And There's A Blip In Government Spending

Wolf Richter: In Q1 2024, consumers spent very vigorously on services, but not so vigorously on goods. Imports and government spending dragged on GDP, but we think the slowdown in government spending was just a blip. Inflation re-accelerated sharply in Q1, and GDP grew less than in Q4. Gross private investment jumped at fastest rate in two years.

Between The Lines

Bears Come Out Of Hibernation

This week's AAII Sentiment Survey saw only 32.1% of respondents report as bullish, the lowest percentage since 11/2/23. Bearish sentiment has picked up to 34%. This is the highest bearish sentiment reading since last November. The bull-bear spread has been pushed into negative territory for the first time since 11-3.

Riding The Momentum - Looking Beyond The Tech Giants

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Riding The Momentum - Looking Beyond The Tech Giants. BlackRock Systematic's Systematic Equity Outlook explores macro and micro risks. The persistence of persistent market themes like AI has contributed to high equity index concentration and strong performance of the momentum factor. Inflation and rising geopolitical risks dominate the equity market narrative.

U.S. GDP Report Shows Stagflation Is Tightening Its Grip

U.S. GDP Report Shows Stagflation Is Tightening Its Grip. The soft landing narrative is dead as GDP growth falls below expectations and inflation rises. Traders are removing rate cuts from the outlook, leading to higher nominal Treasury rates and a stronger dollar. Rising rates and tightening financial conditions pose a significant risk to the equity market.

Economic Growth, Labor Productivity And Investment

Labor productivity-output per hour worked-drives long-run economic growth. Bill Conerly says the U.S. Can't expect the economy to grow by working longer hours. He says productivity growth has slowed since the Great Recession. Conerley says businesses need to focus on improving productivity to boost growth.

Trials And Tribulations

Bank of America projects that the United States will have a debt of $34 trillion by year-end. Mark Grant says the U.S. Spent $429 billion on interest payments alone in the last year. America sold $22 trillion in debt last year while the Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation. He says the Fed needs to consider the collateral damage to our economy.