On My Mind: The Fed, The Treasury And A Fistful Of Dollars

The Fed’s press conference following the policy meeting was remarkably dovish, says Sonal Desai. He says the Fed is facing a challenge of dealing with persistent inflation pressures in the U.S. Desai says the economy is still growing at a healthy pace. The Fed needs to keep a close eye on signs of weakening growth.

Was April's Correction Noise Or Signal For Global Markets?

April was a rough month for investors, but the rebound in asset prices in the early days of May has revived expectations that the worst has passed. Friday's US payrolls data posted a substantially softer-than-expected rise in April. The news lifts the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Much depends on how fast the US economy slows.

It Looks Like That Was 'It' For The April Correction

Weekly Forecast, May 3, 2024: Treasury Forward Rate Declines Offset Last Week's Gains

Home Investing Strategy Bonds Analysis Weekly Forecast, May 3, 2024: Treasury Forward Rate Declines Offset Last week's Gains. The current negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is the longest such streak since the launch of the two-year note in 1976. The Treasury curve was down 15 basis points at 2 years and 17 basis points in 10 years over the last week. In this week's forecast, we look at the future probability of an inverted yield curve and the probability of negative rates.

Weekly Report: what happened at TBT last week (0429-0503)?

Weekly Market Pulse: What Did Powell Say?

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Weekly Market Pulse: What Did Powell Say? Jerome Powell was expected to be hawkish at last week's FOMC meeting. The recent rise in rates appears to have run its course, says Joseph Calhoun. He says the market should have priced in a hawkish Powell.

Weaker U.S. Job Numbers Boost Expectations Of A September Rate Cut

Weaker U.S. Job Numbers Boost Expectations Of A September Rate Cut. Non-farm payrolls rose 175k in April versus the 240k consensus. Job creation was weaker, unemployment higher and wage growth more subdued than expected in the April employment report. The unemployment rate moves up to 3.9% from 3.8% and the average work week dropped to 34.4 hours. The report has breathed new life into Federal Reserve interest rate cut calls.

How The Bond Market Learned To Love The Fed

The bond market is abiding the Fed. The market had already priced itself out of the multiple rate cut fantasy. The Fed’s base case view continues to be that growth will maintain a steady pace while inflation gradually gets back to the 2 percent target. Jay Powell downplayed the possibility of stagflation.

May 2024 Perspective

Home Market Outlook Today's Market May 2024 Perspective. US equities struggled last month, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq all falling by 4.16%, 5.00%, and 4.41%. The broader picture continues to be one of rising sovereign rates acting as a headwind to equity market returns.

U.S. Fed Keeps Interest Rates On Hold, Highlights Lack Of Progress On Inflation

U.S. Fed Keeps Interest Rates On Hold, Highlights Lack Of Progress On Inflation. Scott Colbourne with TD Asset Management says the Fed's focus is on the labor market. The Fed acknowledged a lack of progress on inflation and the reduction in the balance sheet runoff pace.

Quick Thoughts: Fed Hawks Will Fly Lower - Eventually

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Quick Thoughts: Fed Hawks Will Fly Lower - Eventually. The Federal Reserve decided to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at its meeting on May 1. The doves will come eventually - but first, we will have to wait and see these hawks fly a bit lower.

Chart Of The Week: The Softening Labor Market

The latest JOLTS report showed the lowest levels of quits since early 2018 when Core PCE inflation was around 2%. The quit rate is a good measure of labor market tightness. The disinflationary trend that was dominant in 2023 is still very much intact.

Fed Watch: Push It Back, Push It Back, Way Back

Fed Holds Policy Steady: Rate Hikes Remain 'Unlikely' Despite Lack Of Inflation Progress

Fed Holds Policy Steady: Rate Hikes Remain 'Unlikely' Despite Lack Of Inflation Progress. The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and argued its policy stance is in a good place. But officials are concerned about the recent lack of progress on inflation. Powell says an interest rate hike is "unlikely"

Stagflation? Sticky Inflation? 7 Reasons For Investors To Be Positive

The Case Of The Disappearing Rate Cuts

The Media Infotainment Complex Strikes Back

Weekly Treasury Forecast, April 26, 2024: Long-Term 1-Month Forward Rate Peak Up 0.12% To 5.54%

Weekly Treasury Forecast: Long-term 1-month forward rate peak in Treasuries is now 5.54%. Negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has now persisted for 454 trading days. The current streak of inverted yield curves is the longest in the U.S. Since 1976. Inverted yield curve is an important indicator of future recessions.

The Canada - U.S. Rate Divergence And The Implications For Markets

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis The Canada - U.S. Rate Divergence And The Implications For Markets. Michael O'Brien, managing director and head of the core Canadian equity team at TD Asset Management, looks at the likelihood of a divergence in US and Canadian interest rates and the potential impact on the economy.

Too Early To Call Stagflation

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Too early to call Stagflation. Economic growth in the first quarter came in at 1.6 percent, well below expectations. But inflation is stuck on a plateau, and the Fed is not likely to raise interest rates, says John Sutter. Sutter says stagflation was a buzzword in the 1970s.