Fed Meeting Preview: Unexpected Macro Data Likely To Alter Fedspeak

US economy grew at 1.6% in Q1 2024, the slowest rate of growth in seven quarters. The latest GDP print came in lower than expected while inflation has inched up. Changes in Fedspeak are anticipated as the Fed meets this week. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is still the labor market.

Consumers Splurge On Services, Fixed Investment Surges, Imports Drag On GDP And There's A Blip In Government Spending

Wolf Richter: In Q1 2024, consumers spent very vigorously on services, but not so vigorously on goods. Imports and government spending dragged on GDP, but we think the slowdown in government spending was just a blip. Inflation re-accelerated sharply in Q1, and GDP grew less than in Q4. Gross private investment jumped at fastest rate in two years.

GDP Update: Moderate Growth And Disinflation Continue

Real GDP is growing at about a 2.2% annual pace. On a year-over-year basis, the deflator rose only 2.4%. The economy today is about 20% smaller than it could have been. Calafia Beach Pundit sees no reason to worry about a near-term recession.

M2 Still Points To Lower Inflation

Between The Lines

U.S. GDP Growth Slows Markedly, And Inflation Remains The Focus

U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.6% annualised in the first quarter of this year. But inflation is hotter than expected, with the core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Inflation makes a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cut look less likely. First quarter GDP growth is well below the 2.5% consensus.

Money Supply Sees Major Jump In Recent Weeks

Money Supply Sees Major Jump In Recent Weeks. Money Supply should dip some heading into the summer before rebounding later in the year. The large increase in seasonally adjusted Money Supply occurred in March. The drop in reverse repos is driving Money Supply and the stock market higher.

Bears Come Out Of Hibernation

This week's AAII Sentiment Survey saw only 32.1% of respondents report as bullish, the lowest percentage since 11/2/23. Bearish sentiment has picked up to 34%. This is the highest bearish sentiment reading since last November. The bull-bear spread has been pushed into negative territory for the first time since 11-3.

Riding The Momentum - Looking Beyond The Tech Giants

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Riding The Momentum - Looking Beyond The Tech Giants. BlackRock Systematic's Systematic Equity Outlook explores macro and micro risks. The persistence of persistent market themes like AI has contributed to high equity index concentration and strong performance of the momentum factor. Inflation and rising geopolitical risks dominate the equity market narrative.

U.S. GDP Report Shows Stagflation Is Tightening Its Grip

U.S. GDP Report Shows Stagflation Is Tightening Its Grip. The soft landing narrative is dead as GDP growth falls below expectations and inflation rises. Traders are removing rate cuts from the outlook, leading to higher nominal Treasury rates and a stronger dollar. Rising rates and tightening financial conditions pose a significant risk to the equity market.

Global ETF Market Facts: 3 Things To Know From Q1 2024

U.S.-listed exchange traded funds (ETFs) still represent a small fraction of overall U.S. Financial markets. As of Q1 2024, individual investor ETFs assets reached nearly $1.4 trillion and represent 13% of equity and 2.8% of fixed income assets. Assets in U.s.-listed ETFs have grown over the last five years.

Economic Growth, Labor Productivity And Investment

Labor productivity-output per hour worked-drives long-run economic growth. Bill Conerly says the U.S. Can't expect the economy to grow by working longer hours. He says productivity growth has slowed since the Great Recession. Conerley says businesses need to focus on improving productivity to boost growth.

Trials And Tribulations

Bank of America projects that the United States will have a debt of $34 trillion by year-end. Mark Grant says the U.S. Spent $429 billion on interest payments alone in the last year. America sold $22 trillion in debt last year while the Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation. He says the Fed needs to consider the collateral damage to our economy.

Equities Play A Waiting Game

Consumption continued to drive growth in the first quarter. The waiting game continues for the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks to cut interest rates this year. 2024 is shaping up to be a “normal” expansionary year with healthy levels of economic growth and inflation.

Just A Correction, Or Is The Bull Market Over?

U.S. Q1 2024 GDP Growth Looks Set For Slowdown In Thursday's Release

US economy appears on track to post softer growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release on Thursday. The key debate is whether the economy will stabilize at a softer pace of growth vs. Decelerate further in the months ahead. A critical factor supporting the upbeat economic view: consumer spending is still solid.

Climbing Limo GDP Forecast For Q1 2024

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its first estimate of the United States' Gross Domestic Product during the first quarter of 2024. It's a good opportunity to check in with how 2024-Q1's GDP tracks with what a momentum-based forecasting method projected it would be for this quarter. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for 2024- Q1 could be the first in which actual GDP exceeds the momentum forecast.

U.S. Economic Growth Up, Fed Rate Cuts Coming Later

Expect Equity Market Corrections

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Expect Equity Market Corrections Apr. 23, 2024. Market corrections are a normal function of the equity market. The S&P 500 Index is now outperforming the Nasdaq 100 Index. Company outlooks will be an important indication of the year ahead.

Gold And Bitcoin Rallies Vs. U.S. Dollar Strength