U.S. Labor Market Cycle Has Peaked - Will Recession Soon Follow?

U.S. Labor Market Cycle Has Peaked - Will Recession Soon Follow? The labor market is the key driver of economic strength and weakness. Near-term projections in the US Business Cycle Risk Report strongly suggest that US economic growth will prevail through June. In the search of early warning signs of trouble, focus on the labor market.

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHX last week (0429-0503)?

U.S. Recession Warning Via States Economies Was A False Alarm

Recession Probability Falls After Hitting Double-Top

The probability the U.S. Economy will see a recession begin sometime in the next 12 months has started to fall after hitting a double-top. Recession Probability peaked at 81% in July 2023. The expected timing of rate cuts by the Fed has been slipping later and later during the past six weeks.

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHX last week (0422-0426)?

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHX last week (0415-0419)?

SCHX ETF Factor Report

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHX last week (0408-0412)?

ETF Analysis: Do Historical Returns Predict Future Returns?

Historic returns are among the first things investors consider when analyzing an ETF. This article ranks hundreds of small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap ETFs by their one-year, three-year and five-year returns by segment and style. Do Historical Returns Predict Future Returns? examines hundreds of U.S. Equity ETFs. Using over 4,000 data points for 576 EquityETFs over 23 years.

Why We Won't See A Recession In 2024

The jobs market is unlikely to lead to a recession in 2024. Wage growth continues to trend lower, while a spike in unemployment that would trigger a recession appears unlikely from here. The labour market is cooling, but is expected to begin to tighten in the coming years. The decline in wage growth has been caused by a lack of labour supply.

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHX last week (0401-0405)?

Building Healthy ETF Portfolios: 6 Key Nutrients

U.S. Economic Review And Outlook Q1 2024

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHX last week (0325-0329)?

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHX last week (0318-0322)?

U.S. Recession Probability Nears A Double Top

The odds the U.S. Economy will see a recession start in the next 12 months are nearing a double top. The prospect for a recession has ticked up since bottoming in December 2023. The inversion of the Treasury curve has deepened since then. The Federal Reserve is expected to meet in March 2024 to discuss setting short-term interest rates.

Should Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF (SCHX) Be on Your Investing Radar?

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHX last week (0311-0315)?

The U.S. Economic Bust Continues, But A Recession Has Been Delayed

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHX last week (0304-0308)?