GDP Update: Moderate Growth And Disinflation Continue

Real GDP is growing at about a 2.2% annual pace. On a year-over-year basis, the deflator rose only 2.4%. The economy today is about 20% smaller than it could have been. Calafia Beach Pundit sees no reason to worry about a near-term recession.

M2 Still Points To Lower Inflation

U.S. GDP Growth Slows Markedly, And Inflation Remains The Focus

U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.6% annualised in the first quarter of this year. But inflation is hotter than expected, with the core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Inflation makes a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cut look less likely. First quarter GDP growth is well below the 2.5% consensus.

Money Supply Sees Major Jump In Recent Weeks

Money Supply Sees Major Jump In Recent Weeks. Money Supply should dip some heading into the summer before rebounding later in the year. The large increase in seasonally adjusted Money Supply occurred in March. The drop in reverse repos is driving Money Supply and the stock market higher.

Transaction in Own Shares

ZROZ Vs. EDV: Which Zero Coupon Treasury ETF Is Better?

Zero coupon treasury bonds are considered to be a better way to benefit from rate cuts in the US compared to ordinary treasury bonds. Zero coupon bonds are a type of bond that doesn't pay periodic interest payments. The ZROZ and EDV zero coupon treasury funds are two major zero coupon bond ETFs. The EDV is a peer fund relative to the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon Treasury Index ETF.

Rising Treasury Yields, Falling Oil Prices, And Hawkish Talk From The Fed

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Rising Treasury Yields, Falling Oil Prices, And Hawkish Talk From The Fed. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to levels not seen since last November. Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell last week from recent highs despite tensions in the Middle East.

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U.S. Economic Growth Up, Fed Rate Cuts Coming Later

Weekly Forecast, April 19, 2024: Higher For 30 Years?

Home Investing Strategy Bonds Analysis Weekly Forecast, April 19, 2024: Higher for 30 years? The Treasury curve was up 9 basis points at 2 years and was up 12 basis points in 10 years over the last week. The current negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is the longest such streak since 1976. The 1-month forward rate in 30 years jumped 0.19% to 3.77%. Inverted Treasury yield curve is an important indicator of a future recession.

Weekly Report: what happened at EDV last week (0415-0419)?

Endeavour Announces Independent Non-Executive Director Nomination

John Munro has been nominated as an Independent Non-Executive Director of Endeavour Mining plc. His appointment will be voted on by shareholders at the Annual General Meeting to be held on 30 May 2024. If elected, John Munro will chair the Technical, Health and Safety Committee of the Board.

Why Haven't We Whipped Inflation Yet?

Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 4.5% over the last three months. Inflation accelerated during the first quarter. By conventional measures, money looks tight. The money supply suggests money is tight. Yet inflation accelerates. Alexander Salter says inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Dollar Dominance And The Ghosts Of 1997

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Belated March CPI Analysis

Transaction in Own Shares

Small Group Of Hedge Funds Wields Dominance In US Treasury Market: 'A Concentration Of Vulnerability Has Built Up,' IMF Warns

The International Monetary Fund has raised concerns about hedge funds' increasing short positions in U.S. Treasury futures market. The IMF says a handful of highly leveraged funds now hold most of the short positions. Nearly half of all two-year Treasury futures positions are held by fewer than eight hedge funds. The concentration of short positions by hedge funds could pose systemic threats to the global economy.

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields