M2 Still Points To Lower Inflation

U.S. GDP Growth Slows Markedly, And Inflation Remains The Focus

U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.6% annualised in the first quarter of this year. But inflation is hotter than expected, with the core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Inflation makes a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cut look less likely. First quarter GDP growth is well below the 2.5% consensus.

Money Supply Sees Major Jump In Recent Weeks

Money Supply Sees Major Jump In Recent Weeks. Money Supply should dip some heading into the summer before rebounding later in the year. The large increase in seasonally adjusted Money Supply occurred in March. The drop in reverse repos is driving Money Supply and the stock market higher.

Weekly Report: what happened at FIBR last week (0415-0419)?

Belated March CPI Analysis

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Weekly Report: what happened at FIBR last week (0408-0412)?

2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped

Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.

The Federal Reserve Needs To Raise Interest Rates 0.25%

The Federal Reserve needs to raise their Fed funds target rate by 0.25% at their May 1 meeting. The Fed's 2% inflation target is considered optimal for economic growth and stability. Current interest rates are not historically high, and there is no need for a rate cut. Inflation figures are trending up and employment numbers are strong.

Beneath The Skin Of CPI Inflation, March: Inflation Behaves Very Badly, Saga Far From Over

Consumer Price Index for March was just as bad as in February. Inflation in "core services" jumped by 5.6% annualized in March from February. Ugly inflation in services drives up the 3-month overall CPI to worst since Nov 2022. The Fed has been in desperate search of confidence that inflation would cool after the Amazing Cooling.

Inflation, Poor Sales, And Fewer Jobs

The NFIB's reading on small business sentiment dropped to 88.5 in March. The index is the weakest reading since December 2012. The percentage of small firms reporting poor sales as their biggest issue is on the rise. Inflation and higher prices ticked higher in the survey. The most significant decline in hiring plans is down to the lowest levels since spring 2020.

Inflation Is Inevitable, You Must Act Now

Inflation is inevitable in the long term, and investors should prepare their portfolios for this environment. The current economic situation shares similarities with the period spanning from the Roaring Twenties to World War II. Gold, oil, and Bitcoin are expected to be good inflation hedges.

Adam Abbas' Fixed Income Market Commentary - Q1 2024

Weekly Report: what happened at FIBR last week (0401-0405)?

Nothing In The Jobs Report Indicates The Fed Should Cut Rates: Labor Market Plugging Along Just Fine Despite 5.5% Rates

Nothing In The Jobs Report Indicates The Fed Should Cut Rates: Labor Market Plugging Along Just Fine Despite 5.5% Rates. Average hourly earnings rose in March at an annualized rate of 4.3%. The labor force rose by 469,000 in March to 167.9 million. In March, 303,000 payroll jobs were created - better than expected.

Yes, The Labor Market Is Still Not Tight

This month's labor report showed one of the sharpest slowdowns of recent years with the rate of change slowing from 4.6% to 4.2%. The labor market is still not tight enough to cause inflation. The Fed has room to wait on rate cuts.

Here's Why 5% Is Again A Risk For The U.S. 10yr

ING: We think the Fed peaked in July 2023. The 10yr yield has not been trading in a manner consistent with prior peaks. 5% is a risk for the US 10yr. In the current cycle, the Fed hit its cycle high of 5% in October 2023, three months after the funds rate peak.