IYR

Who paid the rent? Real estate earnings season kicks off this week with more than 200 REITs and housing industry companies reporting earnings over the next month.Rent collection - a metric that was rarely reported in the pre-COVID-19 era - has become the most critical statistic tracked by investors due to its impact on dividend-paying capacity.Dividend cuts have been a major theme throughout the pandemic. 65 of 170 equity REITs have reduced their dividend, but since the start of Q3, dividend increases have outnumbered cuts.REITs enter third-quarter earnings season as the third-worst performing out of 11 GICS equity sectors. Improving rent collection and dividend commentary could be a positive catalyst to drive a recovery.While many commercial property sectors have struggled, several "essential" property sectors have thrived throughout the pandemic. We discuss the trends that we're watching this earnings season in each of the real estate property sectors.

U.S. equity markets finished flat this week as better-than-expected economic data and earnings results were offset by a continued fiscal stalemate and pressure on technology stocks amid a censorship controversy.The S&P 500 managed to eke out a 0.1% gain this week. The Nasdaq 100 ended the week on a four-day skid as Twitter and Facebook face Congressional subpoenas.Coming off its best two-week gain since April, a sharp sell-off among COVID-sensitive property sectors sent Equity REITs lower by 2.7% with 17 of 18 property sectors in negative territory.Retail sales were far stronger than expected in September, gaining for the fifth month in a row and setting new record highs. Retail sales are now higher by 5.4% from last year, led by the e-commerce and home improvement categories.While retail sales and housing data have exhibited continued strength, the employment recovery has shown signs of losing steam in recent weeks with Initial Jobless Claims coming in above estimates.

The high-flying cell tower sector has thrived throughout the pandemic. Cellular network capacity has been pushed to the limits as businesses, schools, and individuals stay connected via virtual interaction.5G is here. Apple's upcoming iPhone 12 launch represents the true "arrival" of 5G, the much-anticipated next-generation mobile network that promises to usher in a new era of technological innovation.Cell tower REITs will be the "hub" of these 5G networks, augmented by higher-density small cells. High-power macro towers provide the most economical mix of wide coverage and capacity.Fixed wireless broadband - using a cell network for home broadband - will be 5G’s true “killer app” and will fundamentally disrupt the telecommunications space, likely to the benefit of consumers.Cell tower REITs continue to benefit from favorable competitive positioning within the telecommunication sector. While these REITs are priced for perfection, low supply and high demand should translate into continued pricing power for cell tower REITs.

Healthcare REITs - which have been "ground-zero" of the coronavirus pandemic - have shown signs of life over the past quarter on stabilizing fundamentals and on hopes of a potential vaccine.For senior housing REITs, in particular, the pandemic has put a significant dent in near-term demand and has driven significantly higher expenses, but interim updates suggest the worst is behind them.Despite the headwinds, healthcare REITs reported near-perfect rent collection outside of the senior housing sub-sector. Five healthcare REITs have reduced dividends this year, while three have raised.The long-term outlook for senior housing remains intact as the long-awaited demographic-driven demand boom is finally arriving. Attitudes towards senior housing, however, need to be monitored.No healthcare REIT sector is entirely immune from the long-term consequences of the pandemic. Even the "safe haven" Medical Office Building sub-sector faces pressures from the dramatically increased use of telemedicine.

Americans cautiously returned to the doctor’s office for non-essential medical procedures like knee replacements in the third quarter but Wall Street expectations into the end of the year may be too high.

Several economic studies have shown that the recent trade war has done more harm than good to American manufacturing, actually reducing employment in that sector. It has also depressed US investment, which in turn weighs on economic growth. American businesses and consumers paid around $46 billion from 2018 to 2019 due to tariffs on Chinese imports — virtually none was paid by China. Trade wars appear set to continue for years to come, whoever wins the White House for the next presidential term. This will undoubtedly have a dampening effect on economic growth going forward.