Gold And Bitcoin Rallies Vs. U.S. Dollar Strength

Weekly Report: what happened at UDN last week (0415-0419)?

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Belated March CPI Analysis

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

A (Un)Certain Framework

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Weekly Report: what happened at UDN last week (0408-0412)?

U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts

US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.

Federal Reserve Policy Rate Path: An Evolving Picture

Strong economic data has led to significant shifts in market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting policy rates. Financial market expectations have now shifted from six rate cuts to just two cuts this year. The first rate reduction is now expected to come in September. The Fed continues to expect to cut rates this year, but there is a risk to this forecast.

Flash Insights: March Inflation - Yet Another Reason To Delay Easing

US headline and core Consumer Price Index topped expectations - both rising 0.4%. Transportation, medical and other personal services largely drove the rise. Core goods CPI turned negative once again - down 0.2% m/m. On a six-month annualized basis, core CPI is now near 4%, while supercore CPI is above 6%.

Where We Stand

2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped

Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.

Dollar Consolidates But Adjustment Is Not Over

Higher than expected US CPI for the third consecutive month drove US interest rates sharply higher and lifted the greenback broadly. The market appears to be catching its breath today, but the shallow consolidation suggests the moves are not over. The dollar has reached nearly JPY153.30. Gold fell by about $18.75 an ounce yesterday, its largest loss in about a month.

Beneath The Skin Of CPI Inflation, March: Inflation Behaves Very Badly, Saga Far From Over

Consumer Price Index for March was just as bad as in February. Inflation in "core services" jumped by 5.6% annualized in March from February. Ugly inflation in services drives up the 3-month overall CPI to worst since Nov 2022. The Fed has been in desperate search of confidence that inflation would cool after the Amazing Cooling.

Expect A Rate Cut In November Or None At All

Today's hotter-than-expected CPI all but eliminates the odds of a Fed rate cut in June. The likelihood of cuts between July and October is slim because the pace of change is too slow to justify a cut. We've made tremendous progress in the fight against inflation. The Fed should see a cut in November or none at all.

U.S. Inflation Quashes The Chances Of A June Fed Rate Cut

U.S. CPI, New Security Initiatives With Tokyo And Manila, Bank Of Canada Meeting

The dollar has been confined to narrow ranges ahead of the US CPI report. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled that it was in no hurry to cut rates. The New Zealand dollar is leading the G10 currencies higher. The Hang Seng and the mainland companies in Asia are leading the region. Gold is consolidating in about $2345-$2360.

Inflation, Poor Sales, And Fewer Jobs

The NFIB's reading on small business sentiment dropped to 88.5 in March. The index is the weakest reading since December 2012. The percentage of small firms reporting poor sales as their biggest issue is on the rise. Inflation and higher prices ticked higher in the survey. The most significant decline in hiring plans is down to the lowest levels since spring 2020.

Inflation Is Inevitable, You Must Act Now

Inflation is inevitable in the long term, and investors should prepare their portfolios for this environment. The current economic situation shares similarities with the period spanning from the Roaring Twenties to World War II. Gold, oil, and Bitcoin are expected to be good inflation hedges.