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China's economy expanded by 2.7% in Q3, a little below the Bloomberg survey median forecast of 3.3%, and Q2 growth was revised to 11.7% from 11.5%.The UK has been struck by a resurging virus, the lack of progress with EU trade talks, and the pre-weekend downgrade by Moody's.In an otherwise light calendar today, six Fed officials speak. These include Chair Powell at an IMF-sponsored discussion of cross-border payments and Vice-Chair Clarida on the economic outlook.Oil prices have recovered from their April lows but have been moving broadly sideways for three-four months.

Global economic growth has underwhelmed versus expectations generally since 2011.Lower than expected growth versus expectations has caused investors to chase growth at almost any price, and duration in their bond investments almost at any price.This crowded investment landscape is about to experience a wholesale change, with global growth outperforming expectations led by China and the United States.

The US dollar rose against nearly all the major currencies last week. The yen was the sole exception.Of the majors, the Australian dollar suffered more than a 2% decline following the strongest signals to date that that Reserve Bank of Australia will do more to support the economy.However, it is still a question of precisely what it will do.

European bond prices have an unmistakable correlation to European COVID infections.The strategy of ensuring the banking system remains well capitalized - while letting market-based finance run wild - may have plausible theoretical underpinnings.The "penalty rate" issue is key to mitigating moral hazard.

Increasing inflation has implications for businesses and workers, but this article will focus on investors.The classic inflation hedges are gold, other commodities, real estate and, some argued, stocks.There are possibilities in all these categories, though investors should not expect any of these to work perfectly.There is no asset that is obviously a slam dunk for an inflation hedge, but gold, mining stocks and farmland should be considered.

There are continuing political and pandemic stories that could dominate the news cycle at any time.Many of the normal economic indicators are not helpful in the wake of the COVID lockdown decline.Retail sales improved 1.9% in September, beating expectations of a 0.6% gain and August’s 0.6% increase.Initial jobless claims increased to 898K versus expectations of 830K and the prior week’s 845K.Technical measures are reasonably strong. Trends remain intact and support levels have generally not been violated.

USD/CAD started trading at just under the 1.30 handle this year, in January 2020. COVID-19 saw the pair trade well above the 1.40 handle.More recently, USD/CAD has fallen back down to levels that were similar to January 2020, although the open price has yet to be revisited.I believe the open price of under 1.30 is likely to revisited, and on the basis of an unfavorable change in the real yield, lower prices are likely.A long-term Purchasing Power Parity model also supports the fact that USD/CAD likely remains overvalued.Provided that "this time is not different", this could be the start of a new, long-term cyclical upswing in the value of the Canadian dollar.

The early stages of a hyperinflation are always seen by the monetary authorities as the only policy to pursue.Nominal GDP is not just the other side of the monetary equation. It is also total production, and the other side of total production is the sum of consumption and deferred consumption.Very few are conscious that hyperinflation is already with us.