UDN

December 2023 Monthly

The global economy appears to be entering a new phase. The us economy is expected to slow sharply in q4, with a broad slowdown in consumption, government spending, and business investment. Global central banks are facing challenges in responding to new threats to price stability. The eurozone and uk economies continue to struggle.

Growth Up, Inflation Down

Jlgutierrez says the goldilocks economy is in a moderate but positive position. He says the economy is experiencing moderate growth and moderate inflation. The fed eased up on its hawkish stance in the fall, he says. Jlgut gutierrez says the market is in the midst of a santa claus rally in december.

Disinflation Dream Come True

According to the bureau of economic analysis, price pressures have significantly eased. Headline inflation was a mere 0.59 percent last month. Core inflation was 1.96 percent, below the federal reserve’s 2.0 percent target. Ongoing disinflation means monetary policy is unambiguously tight.

Dollar Dumps In November As Fed Rate Cut Optimism Increases

U.s. Dollar index gained 0.6% in the last two days of november. But analysts believe the rally will be short-lived as equities continue to surge and rate cut optimism remains high. The dollar is expected to start cutting rates in the first quarter of 2024.

Recessionary Indicators Update - Soft Landing Or Worse?

Wall street economists predict a "soft landing" or no recession in 2024, despite recessionary indicators suggesting otherwise. Lance roberts says the yield curve inversion is a warning sign of a recession but not the start of the recession. The market's lead-up to a recession has shrunk markedly since 1980.

What Will Powell Say?

The dollar is trading softer today, with the scandis and dollar-bloc currencies leading with gains. Hong kong and south korea saw equity losses, while europe's stoxx 600 is up for the third straight gain. Caixin manufacturing unexpectedly rose to 50.7 in november. Market participants will be focused on fed chair powell's comments and stance on rate cuts.

A Reassuring Outlook

Economy is growing at a moderate pace and inflation is fast approaching the fed's target. Gdp grew at a robust 5.2% annualized rate in the third quarter. M2, gdp, and inflation statistics are consistent with the view of a moderate economy. The fed has no reason to tighten monetary conditions any further.

The Dollar Is Having One Of Its Best Days This Month

The dollar is having one of its best days of the month. The dollar is rising against all major currencies. European benchmark yields are mixed, with the 10-year gilt yield up almost three basis points. Imf revised forecast for china's gdp to 5.4% but the november pmi disappointed.