More Good Inflation News: David Berson's Economic Brief

Inflation Remained Low In June

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts. GDP grew an annualised 2.8% in second-quarter 2024. Core PCE deflator rose 2.9% annualised versus the 2.7% expectation.

Best-Performing Bond ETFs For 2024

Best-Performing bond ETFs for 2024 are those with low duration and negative duration. The best-performing bond funds have outperformed in spite of delayed rate hikes. The Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) is one of the best performing bond funds for the year.

3 Bad Narratives That Are Dead (But Will Persist)

3 Bad Narratives That Are Dead (But Will Persist) Cullen Roche: Raising interest rates does not cause inflation. He says the Great Financial Crisis created some of the worst narratives in finance and economics. In 2008, the Fed cut rates to 0% and many expected this to create hyperinflation risk.

What The U.S. Election Could Mean For Deficits, Debt And The Yield Curve

Government borrowing and the national debt are barely mentioned in the US election campaign. The US government is borrowing the equivalent of 6% of GDP and national debt totals $35tr. Failure to change trajectory risks further debt downgrades, market volatility and higher borrowing costs. Fiscal sustainability of the US is being questioned.

Yield Advantage: Key Takeaways From PIMCO's Secular Outlook

Central banks have achieved disinflation. Real yields are at levels not seen in 15 years. Fiscal policy in the US and abroad is on an unsustainable path. We're in a world of elevated macro and geopolitical risk. PIMCO: There's a yield to be seized and a yield advantage.

Easing Into Elections

Economic Update - Q2 2024

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Economic Update - Q2 2024. The US economy is still growing but growth has slowed and signs of weakness are apparent. First quarter US real GDP figures came in at a 1.4% annual growth rate. Low savings rates and rising credit card delinquencies bear watching for a potential pullback in consumer spending. The Housing market has felt the effects of higher interest rates.

How Are Financial Markets Really Doing?

Why The Fed's Picking Up Speed Toward Rate Cuts

Velocity Of Money Is No Longer A Huge Inflation Factor

The Fed Dithers While Inflation Withers

Chart Of The Week: Treasury Yield Curve Signaling 'All Clear'

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Chart Of The Week: Treasury Yield Curve Signaling 'All Clear' ahead of many recessions in US economic history, the yield curve has gone negative - or "inverted" The 2-10 spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields is now at minus-27 basis points. The MoneyShow Chart of the Week for July 15, 2024 is Mike Larson's chart of the week.

Is The Fed Going To Cut Rates Soon? Guess Who Thinks So

Weekly Market Pulse: The Soft Landing Zone

Weekly Report: what happened at RINF last week (0708-0712)?

Will A Softer U.S. Inflation Reading Be Enough To Convince The Fed To Cut?

U.S. Inflation showed more signs of cooling in June, bolstering market expectations of a potential rate cut by the Fed. Sam Chai, VP for Active Fixed Income Portfolio Management at TD Asset Management, breaks down the latest CPI reading. Will a Softer U.s. Inflation Reading Be Enough To Convince The Fed To Cut?

Consumer Prices Decline In June

Consumer prices have grown 3.0 percent over the last year, the lowest 12-month rate since March 2021. Federal Reserve is trying to engineer a gradual disinflation but is getting outright deflation, says Alexander Salter. The energy component of the CPI fell 2.0% in June.

Easing Inflation: A Clear Path To A September Cut

June CPI reading significantly increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Headline CPI fell to -0.1% month-on-month, the first negative print since May 2020. The data indicates a broad weakening in price pressures. Despite the encouraging data, the Fed still needs more evidence of sustained inflation.