Bank loan, inflation protected funds attract new money: Lipper Refinitiv
For the fund-flows week ended Jan. 13, some investors veered to fixed-income securities that were either tied to inflation or adjust for rising yields, while others remained in search of
Seekingalpha · 01/17 22:19
New year brings inflation worries, equity correction into view
In the latest money manager survey of buysiders at Seeking Alpha, some unpopular strategies and forecasts arose.After lying dormant for years, value investing reemerged among the strategies many managers expect
Seekingalpha · 01/04 19:37
A Historic Capital Rotation Is On Tap
Global economic growth has underwhelmed versus expectations generally since 2011.Lower than expected growth versus expectations has caused investors to chase growth at almost any price, and duration in their bond investments almost at any price.This crowded investment landscape is about to experience a wholesale change, with global growth outperforming expectations led by China and the United States.
Seekingalpha · 10/19/2020 03:48
Weekly Commentary: Moral Hazard Pinnacle
European bond prices have an unmistakable correlation to European COVID infections.The strategy of ensuring the banking system remains well capitalized - while letting market-based finance run wild - may have plausible theoretical underpinnings.The "penalty rate" issue is key to mitigating moral hazard.
Seekingalpha · 10/18/2020 13:25
It's Time For Inflation Hedges: Consider Gold, Mining Stocks And Farmland
Increasing inflation has implications for businesses and workers, but this article will focus on investors.The classic inflation hedges are gold, other commodities, real estate and, some argued, stocks.There are possibilities in all these categories, though investors should not expect any of these to work perfectly.There is no asset that is obviously a slam dunk for an inflation hedge, but gold, mining stocks and farmland should be considered.
Seekingalpha · 10/18/2020 13:22
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Strong Earnings Signal An Economic Rebound?
There are continuing political and pandemic stories that could dominate the news cycle at any time.Many of the normal economic indicators are not helpful in the wake of the COVID lockdown decline.Retail sales improved 1.9% in September, beating expectations of a 0.6% gain and August’s 0.6% increase.Initial jobless claims increased to 898K versus expectations of 830K and the prior week’s 845K.Technical measures are reasonably strong. Trends remain intact and support levels have generally not been violated.
Seekingalpha · 10/18/2020 11:00
Hyperinflation Is Here
The early stages of a hyperinflation are always seen by the monetary authorities as the only policy to pursue.Nominal GDP is not just the other side of the monetary equation. It is also total production, and the other side of total production is the sum of consumption and deferred consumption.Very few are conscious that hyperinflation is already with us.
Seekingalpha · 10/16/2020 13:27
Consumer Price Index: September Core At 1.71%
The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.37%, up from 1.31% the previous month.Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.71%, down from 1.74% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE was looking for a 0.2% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.2% in Core CPI.
Seekingalpha · 10/14/2020 08:45
Market Regains Footing On Hopes Of More Stimulus
The inherent problem of tying your Presidency to the stock market is that it's all fine until it isn't.The market rallied on what is for now "hope" of more stimulus. There is still no deal on Capitol Hill, and the parties are still far apart primarily on funding for states and municipalities.Both candidates have the wrong policy prescription for fixing what ails the economy. However, this is "the trap."
Seekingalpha · 10/11/2020 15:35
Weekly Commentary: Weird
At least for now, for the markets it's weirder the better.With Biden's lead appearing increasingly insurmountable (with less than four weeks to go), we can assume there was this week significant buying associated with the partial reversal of market hedges.Chairman Powell made his contribution to Weird Week.
Seekingalpha · 10/11/2020 14:28
Big New ETF Players May Be Ready to Bring Back the Price Wars
Bloomberg · 10/10/2020 11:00
Vanguard Returns $21 Billion in Assets to China’s State Funds
Vanguard Group Inc. returned about $21 billion in managed assets to government clients in China as part of a global shift to focus on low-cost funds for individual investors, according to people familiar with the matter. BlackRock Inc. and Amundi SA are being considered to manage a portion of the funds returned by Vanguard.
Bloomberg · 10/09/2020 09:39
Latest Rise In 10-Year Yield Stirs Reflation Forecasts... Again
It doesn't take much to set reflation expectations on fire these days.With US interest rates near zero (or negative in some parts of the world), a mild uptick in yields inspires a new round of forecasts that a sustained run of higher inflation has finally started.The immediate cause of the higher rates seems to be renewed prospects for a stimulus package passing muster with Republicans and Democrats in Washington.The latest uptick is far from definitive proof, but perhaps it's a start… or just more noise on the path to even lower realms.
Seekingalpha · 10/06/2020 19:45
Growing Worries Over Rising Interest Rates
Some earnings and revenue growth data was going to be added on the Financial sector, but given the drop in the 10-year Treasury this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield now at 74 bps, a post dedicated to worries about rising interest rates made more sense.A steepening yield curve would no doubt help the Financial sector, but I think the 10-year Treasury yield would need to rise over 90 bps to start to make bond investors nervous.The bond vigilantes haven't gone away, they've just been punched in the teeth repeatedly the last two decades.
Seekingalpha · 10/06/2020 11:57
Rising Interest Rates Is A Good Thing For Governments
Central bank mandates are to target inflation, not to bankrupt central governments because they do not approve of fiscal policies.Central banks always have had to maintain their balance sheet sizes, and there were a number of test cases of quantitative easing over the past decades.A weaker Canadian dollar boosts exporters, creating the theoretical possibility of rebalancing the private sector away from housing.The Bank of Canada is boxed in because of debt, but Federal Government debt is not the source of concern.
Seekingalpha · 10/06/2020 09:47
Long-Term S&P 500 Returns, Election Event Risk, Financial Sector And More
There seem to be too many different types of risks developing around the Presidential election.Personally, I still think Financials in general and bank stocks in particular are more "value" than "value trap" but more patience will be required.It's another dry week for S&P 500 earnings releases, but the fireworks really start once again in the week of October 12th, 2020 when the big banks and many financial companies kick off 3rd quarter earnings.
Seekingalpha · 10/05/2020 19:04
The Emerging Evidence Of Hyperinflation
In this article, I explain why the purchasing power of the dollar is hostage to foreign sellers, and that if the Fed continues with current monetary policies, the dollar will follow the same fate as John Law's livre in 1720.As always in these situations, there is little public understanding of money, and the realisation that monetary policy is designed to tax people for the benefit of their government will come as an unpleasant shock.This article concentrates on the US dollar, central to other fiat currencies, and where the monetary and financial imbalances are greatest.
Seekingalpha · 10/05/2020 16:38
On The Brink: U.S. Election Special Edition
U.S. election is just one of the three forces driving financial markets.Debunking the notion that a GOP administration is better for financial markets than a Democratic government.What a Trump or Biden win could mean for equities, fixed income and real assets.
Seekingalpha · 10/05/2020 15:26
Trump's COVID Infects The Market Bounce. Is It Over?
As news hit that President Trump and the First Lady contracted COVID-19, so did the market at the open with Dow down roughly 450 points.With the election already a concern, no fiscal stimulus on the way, and rising weakness in the economic data, we added a short-market hedge to portfolios on Friday to reduce our equity exposure over the next few days as a precaution.While I detailed the historical data previously, Dan Clifton of Strategas Research Partners also shows the markets don't care much about election outcomes.
Seekingalpha · 10/04/2020 18:16
Weighing The Week Ahead: Should Investors Change Course Because Of The POTUS Diagnosis?
President Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis has raised worldwide concern.While everyone shares concern about his personal health (and that of the First Lady), it is natural (and reasonable) to consider one's own investments.This analysis requires conclusions about the effect on the election, the implications of the investment for policies, and finally how that impacts individual stocks and sectors.It is important to do the work. No knee-jerk reactions based upon personal political preferences!There are many reasons to be cautious.
Seekingalpha · 10/04/2020 15:36
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