RINF

U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Weekly Report: what happened at RINF last week (0408-0412)?

U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts

US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.

Federal Reserve Policy Rate Path: An Evolving Picture

Strong economic data has led to significant shifts in market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting policy rates. Financial market expectations have now shifted from six rate cuts to just two cuts this year. The first rate reduction is now expected to come in September. The Fed continues to expect to cut rates this year, but there is a risk to this forecast.

Flash Insights: March Inflation - Yet Another Reason To Delay Easing

US headline and core Consumer Price Index topped expectations - both rising 0.4%. Transportation, medical and other personal services largely drove the rise. Core goods CPI turned negative once again - down 0.2% m/m. On a six-month annualized basis, core CPI is now near 4%, while supercore CPI is above 6%.

2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped

Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.

Beneath The Skin Of CPI Inflation, March: Inflation Behaves Very Badly, Saga Far From Over

Consumer Price Index for March was just as bad as in February. Inflation in "core services" jumped by 5.6% annualized in March from February. Ugly inflation in services drives up the 3-month overall CPI to worst since Nov 2022. The Fed has been in desperate search of confidence that inflation would cool after the Amazing Cooling.