OPEC Update, December 2023

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for December 2023 was published recently. OPEC crude output was 27837kb/d in November. OECD commercial oil stocks remain near the bottom of the 5-year range. OPEC has its US tight oil forecast a bit higher than the EIA.

A Buying Opportunity In Energy

Will Oversupply In The Oil Market Continue In 2024?

Home Market Outlook Commodities Will Oversupply In The Oil Market Continue In 2024? Andriy Yastreb, Vice President, Portfolio Research with TD Asset Management. The forces driving oil prices lower are strong demand and strong supply. MoneyTalk’s Greg Bonnell discusses whether that trend will continue into 2024.

August Non-OPEC And World Oil Production

August Non-OPEC oil production dropped by 71 kb/d to 51,401 bn in August. The largest decreases came from Kazakhstan, Brazil and Russia. U.S. September oil production increased by 224 bn to 13,236 bn. World oil production and projection charts are updated to August 2023.

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Why 2024 Could Be Positive For Commodities, Even If Economic Growth Slows

Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist with TD Securities, explains why softer growth may not lead to lower prices for commodities in 2024. He says commodity prices are still supported amid high interest rates and slowing economic growth. Ghali says the global demand for commodities is still strong, even if growth slows.

The Global Events To Watch In 2024 And The Implications For Markets

U.S. Cost Pressures Hit Three Year Low In November, Jobs Growth Stalls

Us pmi data indicates cooling inflation pressures, modest economic growth, and near-stagnant employment. Businesses report weaker output gains and anticipate slower growth in the months ahead. Business cost growth is at its lowest for three years, accompanied by lower wage growth. Smallest jobs gain since the early pandemic lockdowns of 2020.

U.S. September Oil Production New Record High

U.s. September oil production increased by 224 kb/d to 13,236kb/d, a new record high over november 2019. The increase was primarily due to increases in the gom and north dakota. On a yoy basis, us oil production rose by 899 bbl/d with the majority of the increase in texas.

Oil Demand Has Fallen, But It's Not All Doom And Gloom

Oil demand has fallen but is holding up relatively well, despite recession fears. Chinese demand growth has failed to meet expectations, but us demand in particular remains robust. China has been the biggest driver of crude demand this year, but jet fuel demand remains strong. Despite the recent rout in oil prices, energy demand is still holding up well.

OPEC+ Policy Key For Oil Outlook

Opec+ policy is key for the outlook for the oil market. The group continues to hold a large amount of supply from the market to support prices in 2024. Saudi arabia and russia announced voluntary cuts to erase expected surplus in 1q24. The market is expected to be in a small deficit in the second half of 2024. Opec+ is sitting on a substantial amount of spare capacity. Sanction risk is a risk to the market.

The Fourth Quarter Started Slow, But It May Finish Strong

Home prices in las vegas declined at a 1.9% annual pace in october. Consumer spending slowed to a 0.7% pace in september, according to the commerce department. The fed's beige book revealed that consumers pulled back on discretionary spending. The fourth quarter gdp may come in better than first feared.

Deeper OPEC+ Supply Cuts

Opec+ members announce additional voluntary cuts of almost 2.2mmbbls/d in 1q24. The market reaction suggests the market was underwhelmed with the action taken by the group. Nigeria's production target was raised but angola's target was cut further.

FTSE And Crude Oil: Will Rebound In Oil Prices Lift Energy Stocks?

Uk’s ftse has spent much of november in consolidation mode. German dax index was up again today to lead european indices. Oil prices have found support ahead of the opec+ meeting on thursday. Recent positive economic indicators from china and the uk suggest a potential turnaround in oil prices.

An Oil Market In Healing

The oil market is in a state of healing after a disastrous month for prices, says christopher yates. He believes the market is running out of fuel and prices are in the process of bottoming. He says the oil market has been a story of speculators and upside surprises in supply. Seasonally adjusted inventory draws have shifted to inventory builds, he says. Yates says the downside is limited, barring an exogenous increase in opec+ or us production.

July Non-OPEC And World Oil Production

July non-opec oil production increased by 520kb/d to 52,245 kb/d and is up 1,706b/d from may. World without the us oil output in july decreased by 419 bbls to 68,749 bbl/d. From august 2023 to december 2024, world oil production is expected to increase by 1,105. Eia has not updated its world oil production website.

What Will OPEC+ Do?

Oil price volatility will be heightened until opec+ decision time. Fundamentally the oil market doesn't require an additional cut, but we think opec+ will announce an additional coordinated cut. The oil market healing process is underway, so it will take time. Last week, oil prices surged on rumors of deeper production cuts.

Low-Carbon Transition Investing 101

Low-carbon transition investing 101: the transition to a low-carbon economy is rewiring economies, sectors and businesses. Helen lees-jones, emea head of the sustainable & transition solutions group at blackrock explains why investors are investing in the transition.

Why Gold Could Hit An All-Time High By The First Half Of 2024

Why gold prices could hit an all-time high by the first half of 2024. Daniel ghali, senior commodity strategist at td securities, says the u.s. Economy may have peaked. Ghali says investors are under-positioned for a recession in the us, and gold could rally to $2,100.

Weekly Market Pulse: Has Inflation Really Peaked?

Cpi report was better than expected and lower inflation is a good sign for the economy. Ppi turned negative in march and is still negative year-over-year. Stocks, reits, and bonds rallied last week on good news on inflation. Inflation will come back.