GDP Update: Moderate Growth And Disinflation Continue

Real GDP is growing at about a 2.2% annual pace. On a year-over-year basis, the deflator rose only 2.4%. The economy today is about 20% smaller than it could have been. Calafia Beach Pundit sees no reason to worry about a near-term recession.

M2 Still Points To Lower Inflation

U.S. GDP Growth Slows Markedly, And Inflation Remains The Focus

U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.6% annualised in the first quarter of this year. But inflation is hotter than expected, with the core PCE deflator up 3.7%. Inflation makes a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cut look less likely. First quarter GDP growth is well below the 2.5% consensus.

Money Supply Sees Major Jump In Recent Weeks

Money Supply Sees Major Jump In Recent Weeks. Money Supply should dip some heading into the summer before rebounding later in the year. The large increase in seasonally adjusted Money Supply occurred in March. The drop in reverse repos is driving Money Supply and the stock market higher.

Weekly Report: what happened at VGSH last week (0415-0419)?

Delta Air Lines, Samsara And More On CNBC's 'Final Trades'

Jim Lebenthal of Cerity Partners named Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) as his final trade. Joshua Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management said he is long on Samsara Inc. The airline reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings on April 10.

Belated March CPI Analysis

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The rise in rates last week pushed the 10-year to its highest level since the peak at 5% in October of last year. Gold has been setting new highs, trading above $2400.

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Weekly Report: what happened at VGSH last week (0408-0412)?

2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped

Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.

The Federal Reserve Needs To Raise Interest Rates 0.25%

The Federal Reserve needs to raise their Fed funds target rate by 0.25% at their May 1 meeting. The Fed's 2% inflation target is considered optimal for economic growth and stability. Current interest rates are not historically high, and there is no need for a rate cut. Inflation figures are trending up and employment numbers are strong.

Anatomy Of A Recession Update: What's Different About This Cycle?

Jeffrey Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses the updated ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard. He says immigration has increased the growth potential of the US economy more than usual. He also shares his views on US equities and the impact of the Magnificent Seven.

Beneath The Skin Of CPI Inflation, March: Inflation Behaves Very Badly, Saga Far From Over

Consumer Price Index for March was just as bad as in February. Inflation in "core services" jumped by 5.6% annualized in March from February. Ugly inflation in services drives up the 3-month overall CPI to worst since Nov 2022. The Fed has been in desperate search of confidence that inflation would cool after the Amazing Cooling.

Inflation, Poor Sales, And Fewer Jobs

The NFIB's reading on small business sentiment dropped to 88.5 in March. The index is the weakest reading since December 2012. The percentage of small firms reporting poor sales as their biggest issue is on the rise. Inflation and higher prices ticked higher in the survey. The most significant decline in hiring plans is down to the lowest levels since spring 2020.

Inflation Is Inevitable, You Must Act Now

Inflation is inevitable in the long term, and investors should prepare their portfolios for this environment. The current economic situation shares similarities with the period spanning from the Roaring Twenties to World War II. Gold, oil, and Bitcoin are expected to be good inflation hedges.