VGSH

Federal Reserve At Critical Make-Or-Break Moment

Federal reserve has reached a critical make-or-break moment, says stratos capital partners. The s&p 500 index is up 19.4% year-to-date, and bond yields have fallen meaningfully. Despite fed chairman jerome powell's communication, financial markets are not buying it, says the firm.

U.S. Cost Pressures Hit Three Year Low In November, Jobs Growth Stalls

Us pmi data indicates cooling inflation pressures, modest economic growth, and near-stagnant employment. Businesses report weaker output gains and anticipate slower growth in the months ahead. Business cost growth is at its lowest for three years, accompanied by lower wage growth. Smallest jobs gain since the early pandemic lockdowns of 2020.

Can Inflation Go To Zero? Yes, No, Maybe?

Robert eisenbeis asks whether core inflation could actually go to zero. Core inflation has never hit zero in the history of inflation measures. Core cpi monthly percentage change annualized has hit zero only two times since 2008. Core pce inflation has proved to bounce around zero, but is there staying power over time?

Will The Recent Plummet In Treasury Yields Be Validated?

U.s. 10-year treasury yield has reversed the entire increase it experienced in september and october. Kevin flanagan says the monetary policy outlook has shifted dramatically. Economic/labor market data needs to show a slowing in growth while inflation must continue to cool, he says. Flanagan is the head of fixed income strategy at wisdomtree.

Will 2024 Be The Year For Bonds Some Were Expecting In 2023?

Home market outlook economy analysis will 2024 be the year for bonds some were expecting in 2023? hafiz noordin says the bond market had its best month in almost 40 years in november. He says 2024 may be the year for bonds that many were expecting for 2023. Hafiz says the market's recent performance could carry into next year.

The Money Supply Continues Its Biggest Collapse Since The Great Depression

Money supply growth fell again in october, remaining deep in negative territory after turning negative in november 2022 for the first time in twenty-eight years. Money supply contraction is the largest we've seen since the great depression. Money supply growth has now been negative for twelve months in a row.

Time For Markets To Break Free?

Terence reilly says the s&p 500 has been stuck in a trading range for two years. He says investors seem to be chasing higher-risk assets or "beta" right now. The market is primed for a selloff, he says, but conditions are not in place for a significant selloff.

Weekly Forecast, Dec. 1, 2023: Forward Treasury Peak Down 0.10%

Home investing strategy bonds analysis weekly forecast, dec. 1, 2023: forward treasury peak down 0.10% the probability that the 2-year/10-year treasury spread is still negative in the 13 weeks ending may 31, 2024 is 61.5%. The current streak of inverted yield curves is the second longest in the u.s. Treasury market. Inverted yield curve is an indicator of future recessions.