S&P 500: Trade Of The Year. Week Starting 29th April (Technical Analysis)

S&P 500 is recovering in what could be a prolonged and complex corrective phase. The S&P500 should eventually drop below 4818 to set up the "trade of the year" Andrew McElroy looks at the probable path next week. The monthly and quarterly charts still have a bullish bias for new highs.

Fed Pivot? Traders Thwarted Again As Inflation Just Won't Go Away

Fed is expected to keep rates steady at its meeting next week. Traders have placed bets on a return to low inflation and low interest rates. Inflation continues to be a problem. The Fed is now expected to cut rates back to September. The stock market doesn't seem to care about the economy.

Barclays sees an uptick in recession fears

Barclays sees an uptick in recession fears. The firm says its "early recession" portfolio basket has seen its largest increase in months. Barclays says this suggests that recessionary fears are starting to creep back into the equity space. The bank's investment baskets include five stages of the business cycle.

How Stock Markets Will Likely React After FOMC Announcement

Stock markets anticipate no interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in their upcoming meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will focus on maximum employment and stable prices in his announcement. Investors should pay attention to inflation rates, employment strength, and consumer spending trends. Watch Treasury bond yields at 5% levels after the FOMC meeting.

This Week's Massive Data Dump Could Send Rates And The Dollar Soaring

Financial conditions are tightening as inflation rises and disinflation stalls. Job data this week will determine if trends of higher yields and a stronger dollar will continue. This week will be loaded with job data, starting with the employment cost index for the first quarter. Technical indicators suggest higher rates and the stronger dollar, leading to wider spreads and lower stock prices.

Week Ahead: FOMC, U.S. Jobs, EMU Inflation, JPY Pressure

Home Market Outlook Forex Analysis Week Ahead: FOMC, . Jobs, EMU Inflation, JPY Pressure. The backing up of US rates did not lift the dollar broadly. The Bank of Japan had an opportunity to protest the yen's weakness but did not. The eurozone is expected to report that the economy expanded in Q1.

Inflation Declined In March, But Remains High

Inflation Declined In March, But Remains High. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2-percent average inflation target. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also remained elevated. The latest numbers will do little to sway members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Retail Sales Data Suggests A Strong Consumer, Or Does It

March retail sales data suggests a robust consumer, leading economists to become more optimistic about economic growth this year. Retail sales data was extraordinarily weak from October to January, the traditionally strongest shopping months of the year. Lance Roberts says to remain cautious about economic exuberance. He says the March retail sales report was NOT adjusted for inflation.

Is The Hot Inflation Data In Q1 Noise Or Signal?

Benzinga Bulls And Bears: Tesla, Microsoft, Trump Media, Palantir, And Trader Predicts 4 Meme Coins To Echo Dogecoin, Shiba Inu

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq just had their best week since November, rising 2.7% and 4.2% respectively. Tech stocks saw their strongest performance of 2024 after four weeks of declines. Benzinga examined the prospects for many investors' favorite stocks over the last week.

SA Analyst Roundtable: When will the Fed cut rates?

SA Analyst Roundtable: When will the Fed cut rates? The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets this week. Lawrence Fuller, Michael Kramer, Logan Kane and James Kostohryz say the first rate cut will likely come in May 2025. The SA analysts say they don't expect the Fed to cut interest rates in 2024.

Some country-themed ETFs are outrunning SPY ETF in 3Y returns - Bespoke

Some country-themed ETFs are outrunning SPY ETF in 3Y returns - Bespoke Investment Group. IShares MSCI Mexico has been the biggest winner with a return of 54%. IShares Russell 2000 is down +9% on a 3-year total return basis.

The Turn Is Coming

The 10yr minus 3mo Treasury rate is moving higher at a rapid pace. 88% of portfolio managers in the Bank of America Fund Managers Survey last week believed lower rates were ahead. I believe we are seeing a long-awaited turn away from the single focus of high tech as the only option for investors. Positive economic activity is the primary driver of the 10yr Treasury rate and core industrials.

U.S. Economic Growth Plunges In First Quarter 2024

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis U.S. Economic Growth Plunges In First Quarter 2024. The release of 1st quarter 2024 Gross Domestic Product surprised virtually all forecasters. The first three months of 2024 were characterized by a notable deceleration in US economic growth, marking an almost two-year low.

U.S. Inflation Not As Bad As Feared, But Still Too Hot

U.S. Inflation Not As Bad As Feared, But Still Too Hot in the first quarter. The core PCE deflator came in at 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2%. Inflation is still too hot and September remains the earliest opportunity for an interest rate cut.

Weekly Commentary: Opposite Day

The Semiconductor Index surged 9.9%, more than recovering from last week's 9.2% drubbing. The Bank of Japan just can't stop playing with fire. Short squeezes are alive and well. Tesla surged 14.4% this week. The bulls have plenty of fight.

Fed Likely To Hold Rates Steady And Warn Of The Risk Of Delay To Cuts

Inflation and strong activity and jobs numbers have pushed the timing of the first interest rate cut to December. The Federal Reserve will remain wary and signal that if inflation stays high, so will interest rates. ING sees an opportunity for a September rate cut. The Fed likely to hold rates steady and warn of the risk of a delay to cuts.

Equity Factor Report - Q1 2024: Momentum Strategies Shine

Strong investor sentiment and continued economic strength led momentum strategies to outperform in Q1 2024. The MSCI All Country World Index rose by 8.3% in the first quarter. Russell Investments' Factor Portfolios like Global Large Cap Growth, Momentum, and Quality outperformed the MSCi ACWI.

Strong Quarterly Earnings Fuel Market Optimism Despite Inflation Concerns, Slowing Economic Growth: This Week In The Market

Tech stocks experienced their best week of the year after four consecutive weeks of declines. Tesla Inc. Had its strongest week since January 2023. U.S. Economic growth slowed in the first quarter and Treasury yields hit a six-month high. Energy stocks faltered following weaker-than-expected earnings from Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

This Week in ETFs: New ETFs in a Slump; Closures Thrive