Natural Gas: Ouch, Someone Get The Bulls A Bandaid
Persistent cash market weakness continues to drag October futures lower.And with incoming bearish weather, prices may be stuck here for a while longer.But fundamental signals for the winter heating demand season are improving with Lower 48 production exhibiting steady declines throughout September excluding shut-in and maintenance.If production falls to ~86 Bcf/d by year-end, winter heating demand season will see a deficit of 5 Bcf/d. This is why the winter gas curve remains above $3/MMBtu.So, while the bulls are hurting today, put on a bandaid and suck it up. Falling production is your friend, and bearish cash remains your worst enemy. But once we get past the shoulder season, things should be fine again (for the bulls).
Seekingalpha · 09/17 22:48