RWR

Who paid the rent? Real estate earnings season kicks off this week with more than 200 REITs and housing industry companies reporting earnings over the next month.Rent collection - a metric that was rarely reported in the pre-COVID-19 era - has become the most critical statistic tracked by investors due to its impact on dividend-paying capacity.Dividend cuts have been a major theme throughout the pandemic. 65 of 170 equity REITs have reduced their dividend, but since the start of Q3, dividend increases have outnumbered cuts.REITs enter third-quarter earnings season as the third-worst performing out of 11 GICS equity sectors. Improving rent collection and dividend commentary could be a positive catalyst to drive a recovery.While many commercial property sectors have struggled, several "essential" property sectors have thrived throughout the pandemic. We discuss the trends that we're watching this earnings season in each of the real estate property sectors.

Many of the biggest quant strategies in the stock market these days are plagued by doubt and debate. In fixed income, they just got a $25 trillion endorsement.

The high-flying cell tower sector has thrived throughout the pandemic. Cellular network capacity has been pushed to the limits as businesses, schools, and individuals stay connected via virtual interaction.5G is here. Apple's upcoming iPhone 12 launch represents the true "arrival" of 5G, the much-anticipated next-generation mobile network that promises to usher in a new era of technological innovation.Cell tower REITs will be the "hub" of these 5G networks, augmented by higher-density small cells. High-power macro towers provide the most economical mix of wide coverage and capacity.Fixed wireless broadband - using a cell network for home broadband - will be 5G’s true “killer app” and will fundamentally disrupt the telecommunications space, likely to the benefit of consumers.Cell tower REITs continue to benefit from favorable competitive positioning within the telecommunication sector. While these REITs are priced for perfection, low supply and high demand should translate into continued pricing power for cell tower REITs.

Healthcare REITs - which have been "ground-zero" of the coronavirus pandemic - have shown signs of life over the past quarter on stabilizing fundamentals and on hopes of a potential vaccine.For senior housing REITs, in particular, the pandemic has put a significant dent in near-term demand and has driven significantly higher expenses, but interim updates suggest the worst is behind them.Despite the headwinds, healthcare REITs reported near-perfect rent collection outside of the senior housing sub-sector. Five healthcare REITs have reduced dividends this year, while three have raised.The long-term outlook for senior housing remains intact as the long-awaited demographic-driven demand boom is finally arriving. Attitudes towards senior housing, however, need to be monitored.No healthcare REIT sector is entirely immune from the long-term consequences of the pandemic. Even the "safe haven" Medical Office Building sub-sector faces pressures from the dramatically increased use of telemedicine.

Manufactured Housing REITs have proven to be immune from coronavirus-related headwinds that have slammed much of the real estate sector, collecting nearly 100% of rents, while also boosting dividends this year.Driven by the macroeconomic tailwinds associated with the affordable housing shortage and favorable demographics, Manufactured Housing ("MH") REITs have been the best-performing real estate sector of the past decade.External growth through acquisitions has provided an added boost. Amid this housing shortage, MH REITs have begun investing in a new - but fundamentally similar - asset class: boat marinas.Headwinds become tailwinds - after a sharp slowdown in late-Spring, recreational vehicle and boat sales have smashed records this summer, while the U.S. housing market has roared back to life.MH REITs aren't cheap, but long-term fundamentals remain stellar for this "essential" property sector. Low supply and strong demographic-driven demand for housing continue to provide a compelling backdrop.

Based on the latest sales data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, the preliminary nominal estimate of the market capitalization for new homes was $30.6 billion in August 2020.Perhaps more remarkably, the median sale price of new homes sold in the U.S. fell to an initial estimate of $312,700 in August 2020.With the trend for the sale prices of new homes generally flat to slightly falling over the last two years, the only way the market cap of new homes could increase is because of rising sales volumes.

"No vacancy" becomes "no occupancy." Hotel REITs - along with the global leisure and tourism industry - have been decimated by the coronavirus pandemic, plunging more than 50% this year.Following a record year for the industry in 2019, hotels REITs reported occupancy rates below 20% in Q2. Occupancy has recovered to roughly 45% by late summer, but winter is coming.Every hotel REIT has slashed its dividend in an effort to stay afloat, as 40-50% occupancy is needed to "keep the lights on." Suburban-focused and leisure-oriented properties have outperformed urban hotels.Perhaps a more "pure play" on the success of a vaccine than even the pharmaceuticals themselves, a significant "second-wave" of the pandemic would be likely catastrophic for equity holders.While leisure demand should bounce back relatively quickly when the pandemic subsides, business and group demand may take up to a half-decade or longer to fully recover.

An antihero of the prior financial crisis, Homebuilders have seemingly been on a vendetta over the last six months, asserting themselves as the unexpected leader of the early post-pandemic recovery.Homebuilders were slammed at the outset of the pandemic on fears that a coronavirus-induced recession could inflame a repeat of the Great Financial Crisis for the critical U.S. housing.Instead, the U.S. housing industry has roared back to life in recent months. New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and Home Prices have all seen a substantial reacceleration this year.The sharp rebound in housing market activity has been aided by longer-term macroeconomic trends of favorable millennial-led demographics, historically low housing supply, and near-record low mortgage rates.Housing remains an “unloved” sector despite the compelling long-term tailwinds at its back. Homebuilders trade at deeply discounted valuations to the S&P 500 despite their stellar growth rates.