2.8% Growth Vs. 28% Recession Risk: The New Economic Landscape In 2024

Gross domestic product last quarter increased by 2.8%, a hair above average long-term growth. The Federal Reserve may have pulled off a soft landing in their fight against inflation. The Wall Street Journal survey puts the risk of recession over the next 12 months at just 28%. Real GDP grew at 2.7% in Q2 2024.

Noteworthy ETF Outflows: SPYG, LRCX, ACN, LIN

Is The Dramatic Yen Short Squeeze Over?

SPX 500: Further Weakness May Trigger A Medium-Term Global Risk-Off Event

Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP At 2.8%, Above Forecast

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts. GDP grew an annualised 2.8% in second-quarter 2024. Core PCE deflator rose 2.9% annualised versus the 2.7% expectation.

Nasdaq has dropped 7% in two weeks as the tech selloff picks up steam

The Nasdaq Composite has dropped 7.1% in two weeks as the tech selloff picks up steam. The tech-focused index is now trading below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early May. Wednesday's 3.6% drop in the Nasdaq is the worst single day performance for the index since July 11.

SPY: Don't Be The 'Greater Fool'

Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update

Richard Drury updated his most recent update of country risk for July 2024. He looks at political structure, exposure to war/violence, corruption, and protections for property rights. He argues that a trade-off between democracy and autocracy is more risky for investors. He says a democratic country is more likely to be stable and predictable.

Yen's Surge Continues, While PBOC Surprises With Another Rate Cut, And U.S. 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion

Yen's Surge Continues, While PBOC Surprises With Another Rate Cut, And U.S. 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion. The powerful short-covering rally of the yen and unwinding of carry trades continues. For the second time this week, the PBOC has surprised by cutting interest rates. The US 2-10-year yield curve is the least inverted in two years.

Hoisington Investment Management Q2 2024 Review And Outlook

Winter (Rate Cuts) Is Coming

The 2024 deficit estimate has increased by $400 billion, a 27% rise from their estimate five months ago. The U.S. Deficit for 2024 is expected to be $2.0 trillion, 7% of our Gross Domestic Product. The CBO forecasts no recession for the next decade. The IMF has warned of runaway spending in the United States.

SPYG: My Favorite Large Cap Growth Fund Focused On Magnificent 7

Earnings season features Tesla, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Magnificent Seven will lead the market higher. The SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) is a favorite large-cap growth fund for potential future appreciation. Risks to investing in SPYG include market rotation, disappointing earnings, and underperformance in value-focused markets.

Climbing Limo GDP Forecast For Q2 2024

Greenback And Yen Extend Gains

3 Key Sentiment Indicators Point To A Market Top

Second Quarter Results Will Break The Earnings Stalemate

Short Covering Squeezes The Yen Higher

S&P 500: The Psychology Behind Corrections And Why Investors Should Buy The Dip

Signs of fear are making the headlines after the S&P 500 Index (SPX) came under moderate selling pressure. The widely anticipated pullback has been relatively mild so far. The SPX merely lost -2.9% from its all-time highs before rebounding in the last trading session. Stratos Capital Partners is skeptical that this pullback is an early warning sign of a bear market.

USD/CAD Eyes Breakout As Oil Price Slide Continues, BoC Meeting Next

USD/CAD is nearing a breakout after being range-bound since April. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates this week due to rising unemployment, falling consumer spending, and slowing GDP per capita. Oil prices continued their slide at the start of the week. The Canadian Dollar is being driven by falling oil prices and a weakening Canadian Dollar. USD/Cad is back at the top end of a wedge pattern.