Global Growth Returns And The 2025 Fiscal Reckoning

Gold prices are hitting all-time highs despite outflows from U.S. Bullion ETFs. Investors should be prepared for a gold/bitcoin/bitcoin bull market in 2024-2025, says Klaus Vedfelt. Gold is signaling that government spending policy could be wildly stimulative.

Teen Employment Numbers Improve In March 2024

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, teen employment surged in March 2024. The number of teens Age 16 to 19 counted as employed jumped by 224,000 to reach 5,832,000. Number of Americans Age 18 and 19 with jobs rose 161,000 from the previous month to 3,756,000, the highest since April 2008.

The Stock Market Sell-Off May Have Only Just Begun

The S&P 500 has pulled back 4% from recent highs, but it's not due to geopolitical tension. Rates, the dollar, yen, and oil are not reflecting typical flight to safety characteristics. Markets are correcting for their massive blunder. Financial conditions are tightening, and the market is correcting its errors.

SPYD's Holdings Could Mean 13% Gain Potential

Where's The Downside Tipping Point For U.S. Stocks?

A (Un)Certain Framework

The FOMC has shifted away from specific metrics and adopted a more ambiguous strategy. The Fed has been using a varied set of targets for monetary policy, but the relevance of these data points is questioned. The FomC's outlook for inflation has become increasingly tilted to the upside.

The World Is Overweight U.S. Assets

The world is now overweighting U.S. Assets by 40% of gross domestic product. By 2012, the private sector held a sizeable short position in the U.s. Dollar. As a share of GDP, the world has shifted from overweighting foreign assets to underweighting them. The world has experienced superior growth and asset market performance in the last decade.

U.K. Wage Growth Proves Sticky Despite Rising Unemployment

Private-sector pay up 12% annualised on a month-on-month basis. The unemployment rate notched up to 4.2% from 3.9%. Wage growth is temporarily stuck in the 6% area. The Bank of England will wait until August to cut rates for the first time.

Why Are U.S. Yields Rising? It's The Economy

Despite likely Fed rate cuts this year, U.S. Government bond yields have risen on the back of stronger-than-anticipated economic performance. Rising yields reflect the outperforming economy and the market's expectations for fewer interest rate cuts. The economy isn't showing any signs of slowing and the broader disinflation trend is intact.

Iran Attacks Israel - How Could Markets Be Impacted?

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The rise in rates last week pushed the 10-year to its highest level since the peak at 5% in October of last year. Gold has been setting new highs, trading above $2400.

Consumers Binge Despite Higher Interest Rates, And The Fed Watches Them Nervously

Retail sales in March increased by 0.7% seasonally adjusted, with a year-over-year jump of 4.0%. Total retail sales jumped 10.1% in March from February to $712 billion. Ecommerce, food services, and general merchandise retailers were the biggest drivers of growth.

The Tides Of Time: The Impact Of Aging Demographics

The Best Dividend Stocks In A Higher-For-Longer Interest Rate Environment

The Best Dividend Stocks In A Higher-For-Longer Interest Rate Environment. The latest CPI report showed that inflation accelerated on a year-over-year basis. As a result, interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer. However, there are still attractive opportunities in the high-yield space in a higher-for-longer environment. Characteristics of good dividend stocks for high-rate environments: Their underlying cash flows increase in an elevated interest rate environment.

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

Moderately Bullish On 2024: Markets To Overcome Pessimism And Challenges

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Equity Market Outlook Q2 2024: Extreme Distortions Everywhere - A Moment For Active Management

Home Market Outlook Today's Equity Market Outlook Q2 2024: Extreme Distortions Everywhere - A Moment For Active Management. Neuberger Berman: U.S. Economic growth has remained resilient and leads the world. Global Industrial Activity Is Picking Up While Early Signs Of Moderating Growth in Europe. We believe extreme market consensus presents a moment for active management.

Weekly Report: what happened at SPYD last week (0408-0412)?