Fed Interference Makes Markets Hard To Predict

The Fed has implemented backdoor quantitative easing through bank bailouts and subsidies in the overnight repo market, distorting the stock market. Promised rate cuts by the Fed may not materialize due to the record amount of Treasuries being sold and rising interest rates. The Biden administration has also distorted the energy landscape by selling off half of the US oil reserves.

What Is The U.S. National Debt's Risk To Investments?

Teen Employment Numbers Improve In March 2024

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, teen employment surged in March 2024. The number of teens Age 16 to 19 counted as employed jumped by 224,000 to reach 5,832,000. Number of Americans Age 18 and 19 with jobs rose 161,000 from the previous month to 3,756,000, the highest since April 2008.

The Stock Market Sell-Off May Have Only Just Begun

The S&P 500 has pulled back 4% from recent highs, but it's not due to geopolitical tension. Rates, the dollar, yen, and oil are not reflecting typical flight to safety characteristics. Markets are correcting for their massive blunder. Financial conditions are tightening, and the market is correcting its errors.

The World Is Overweight U.S. Assets

The world is now overweighting U.S. Assets by 40% of gross domestic product. By 2012, the private sector held a sizeable short position in the U.s. Dollar. As a share of GDP, the world has shifted from overweighting foreign assets to underweighting them. The world has experienced superior growth and asset market performance in the last decade.

U.K. Wage Growth Proves Sticky Despite Rising Unemployment

Private-sector pay up 12% annualised on a month-on-month basis. The unemployment rate notched up to 4.2% from 3.9%. Wage growth is temporarily stuck in the 6% area. The Bank of England will wait until August to cut rates for the first time.

Why Are U.S. Yields Rising? It's The Economy

Despite likely Fed rate cuts this year, U.S. Government bond yields have risen on the back of stronger-than-anticipated economic performance. Rising yields reflect the outperforming economy and the market's expectations for fewer interest rate cuts. The economy isn't showing any signs of slowing and the broader disinflation trend is intact.

Iran Attacks Israel - How Could Markets Be Impacted?

Consumers Binge Despite Higher Interest Rates, And The Fed Watches Them Nervously

Retail sales in March increased by 0.7% seasonally adjusted, with a year-over-year jump of 4.0%. Total retail sales jumped 10.1% in March from February to $712 billion. Ecommerce, food services, and general merchandise retailers were the biggest drivers of growth.

The Tides Of Time: The Impact Of Aging Demographics

Moderately Bullish On 2024: Markets To Overcome Pessimism And Challenges

Weekly Report: what happened at SPXV last week (0408-0412)?

Iran Attacks Israel: What Middle East Turmoil Means For Markets

Iran launched missile and drone attacks against Israel over the weekend. Conflict in the Middle East has little effect on overall stock market performance but can impact the price of commodities, particularly oil. Continued tensions may benefit oil stocks, while gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical chaos. The Middle East isn't likely to affect the overall markets.

A Black Swan In Plain Sight: The 10-Year Treasury Yield To 6%

Treasury yields are near 20-year highs, with implications for housing, autos, banks, tech, and the stock market. We could easily reach 6% for 10-year Treasury yields, 9% for mortgages, and 8% for car loans in 2024. This is a potential black swan for markets expecting a return to ultra-easy monetary policy.

A Stronger Dollar May Drive The S&P 500 Much Lower

Stronger dollar will affect financial conditions, earnings estimates for multinational companies, and lead to a contraction in the S&P 500's PE ratio. US CPI report and ECB policy meeting highlight divergent paths for the Fed and ECB, driving further dollar strength. Widening spreads between central banks and interest rates could send the euro lower and impact other currency pairs.

The U.S. Economy In Peril: Part 2 - Inflation

Inflation concerns and hotter-than-expected inflation data are reducing the outlook for rate cuts by the Fed. Wages remain high, adding to inflationary pressures and potentially hurting small businesses. The Fed has no control over spending on "green energy" and other factors that contribute to inflation. The latest CPI report is the third in a row with hotter than expected inflation.

Business Profit Opportunities In The Tight Labor Market

Businesses will profit by evaluating whether labor-intensive activities are valued by the customer. Bill Conerly says the persistent tightness in the labor market will last through 2030. He says some businesses will gain market share and profits in the tight labor market. Businesses can cut their own labor costs more effectively than competitors, he says.

Q1 2024 Earnings Preview: Will Reports Be Good Enough To Turn Markets Positive

Q1 earnings season kicks off with Q1 2024 S&P 500 EPS growth expected to come in at 3.2%. The second quarter got off to a rocky start as major indices closed lower last week. Buybacks and dividend increases were on the rise in Q1. The Consumer Price Index for March was higher than expected.

AIER Everyday Price Index Hits All-Time Record In March 2024

AIER Everyday Price Index saw its third largest increase in over a year in March 2024, shooting up 0.82 percent. The largest price increases were seen in motor fuel, food away from home, and internet services. US Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index data for March 2024 on April 10, 2024.

Q1 2024 Update: Gold Rallies

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Q1 2024 Update: Gold Rallies. Global equity markets reached record levels in the first quarter of 2024, driven by perceived resilient economic data. But investors would be prudent to recognize that such data tells us little about real economic conditions. Gold experienced a substantial rally alongside 'risk-on' assets.