2.8% Growth Vs. 28% Recession Risk: The New Economic Landscape In 2024

Gross domestic product last quarter increased by 2.8%, a hair above average long-term growth. The Federal Reserve may have pulled off a soft landing in their fight against inflation. The Wall Street Journal survey puts the risk of recession over the next 12 months at just 28%. Real GDP grew at 2.7% in Q2 2024.

AllianceBernstein anticipates a soft landing due to easing inflation and moderating growth

AllianceBernstein anticipates a soft landing due to easing inflation and moderating growth in the U.S. In Q3. The investment firm says growth will moderate and inflation will continue its downward trajectory in the second half of 2024. The upcoming presidential election will be a disruptive factor for investors.

Above The Noise: Countdown To A Rate Cut

Data indicates that we can expect to see the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut soon. The implied rate suggests that the first cut may be coming in September. Value and small-cap stocks have tended to outperform growth stocks in the past. The first rate cut is expected to come soon.

Strong U.S. GDP Rise For Q2 Derails Recession Forecasts... Again

This DB chart shows how the tech selloff is driving moves throughout the stock market

This DB chart shows how the tech selloff is driving moves throughout the stock market. A Deutsche Bank chart showed utility stocks (XLU) gaining ground and a Magnificent 7 gauge sinking. Seven of ten sectors in the S&P 500 have advanced since a slide in tech stocks kicked off.

Bullish sentiment sees biggest one-week drop since Feb 2023 in latest AAII survey

Bullish sentiment sees biggest one-week drop since Feb 2023 in latest AAII survey. A tech-driven wipeout on Wall Street sent the Nasdaq Composite plunging close to 4%. Bullish sentiment as per the weekly AAII investor sentiment survey slipped to 43.2% for the week ending July 24. Still, bullish sentiment remains above its historical average.

Wells Fargo says S&P 500 must drop another 2% before discussing a bounce

Play These Inverse ETFs on Apparent "AI Fatigue"

SPY: Don't Be The 'Greater Fool'

The correction happening in stocks is 'far from over,' IBKR says

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite suffered their worst sessions in more than a year on Wednesday. A selloff in tech stocks led the indexes to their steepest falls since October. Interactive Brokers' senior economist says a 10% to 15% correction in the U.S. Equity market is likely.

Winter (Rate Cuts) Is Coming

The 2024 deficit estimate has increased by $400 billion, a 27% rise from their estimate five months ago. The U.S. Deficit for 2024 is expected to be $2.0 trillion, 7% of our Gross Domestic Product. The CBO forecasts no recession for the next decade. The IMF has warned of runaway spending in the United States.

The Case Against Lone Recession Indicators Is Stronger Than Ever

Barclays ups S&P year-end target to 5,600, stating the recent selloff looks contained

U.S. Recession In Motion?

Citi sees S&P companies beating Q2 EPS estimates on productivity gains in the labor market

Citi sees S&P companies beating Q2 EPS estimates on productivity gains in the labor market. Equity strategists at Citi said they are increasingly focused on productivity as a key contributor to earnings resilience. Citi says it sees earnings gains in labor-market productivity.

Daiwa sees breather for Trump trade beneficiaries, market hitting a bottom in October

Daiwa sees breather for Trump trade beneficiaries, market hitting a bottom in October. Daiwa Securities expects likely market beneficiaries of a Trump presidency to take a 'breather' in the run-up to the U.S. General elections in November. The stock market looks headed for a bottom, Daiwa says.

Goldman Sachs is shifting to neutral, but remains mildly pro-risk for the next 12 months

Goldman Sachs is shifting to neutral, but remains mildly pro-risk for the next 12 months. Second half outlook for 2024 shifts towards a more neutral stance. The investment bank's baseline view for the second half of the trading year remains optimistic. Goldman Sachs expects a small pickup in growth as inflation moderates.

Weekly Report: what happened at SH last week (0715-0719)?

Markets look overvalued and stretched – Morningstar Research’s David Sekera

S&P 500 year-end price target raised to 5,900 at UBS on AI strength, profit growth