U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts
US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.
Seeking Alpha · 1h ago
The U.S. Economy In Peril: Part 2 - Inflation
Inflation concerns and hotter-than-expected inflation data are reducing the outlook for rate cuts by the Fed. Wages remain high, adding to inflationary pressures and potentially hurting small businesses. The Fed has no control over spending on "green energy" and other factors that contribute to inflation. The latest CPI report is the third in a row with hotter than expected inflation.
Seeking Alpha · 7h ago
Weekly Commentary: Trouble Brewing In Financial Asset Wonderland
Doug Noland: The Fed's misguided dovish pivot unleashed precariously loose market conditions. He says the market is in the midst of a bubble. He argues that Bubbles can inflate to unimaginable extremes - and then quadruple. Noland says the late-cycle fear of Bubbles is missing out on the reality.
Seeking Alpha · 9h ago
Sideways, With A Splash Of Uncertainty
The S&P 500 established its last record high on the last Thursday in March, right before the long Easter weekend. The market has bounced around in a mostly directionless manner since then. The Q1 earnings season is officially underway as of Friday. The recent decline in stock prices has taken a relatively short-lived effect.
Seeking Alpha · 13h ago
Business Profit Opportunities In The Tight Labor Market
Businesses will profit by evaluating whether labor-intensive activities are valued by the customer. Bill Conerly says the persistent tightness in the labor market will last through 2030. He says some businesses will gain market share and profits in the tight labor market. Businesses can cut their own labor costs more effectively than competitors, he says.
Seeking Alpha · 14h ago
Federal Reserve Policy Rate Path: An Evolving Picture
Strong economic data has led to significant shifts in market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting policy rates. Financial market expectations have now shifted from six rate cuts to just two cuts this year. The first rate reduction is now expected to come in September. The Fed continues to expect to cut rates this year, but there is a risk to this forecast.
Seeking Alpha · 19h ago
Flash Insights: March Inflation - Yet Another Reason To Delay Easing
US headline and core Consumer Price Index topped expectations - both rising 0.4%. Transportation, medical and other personal services largely drove the rise. Core goods CPI turned negative once again - down 0.2% m/m. On a six-month annualized basis, core CPI is now near 4%, while supercore CPI is above 6%.
Seeking Alpha · 1d ago
Where We Stand
Seeking Alpha · 1d ago
Easy For Some, Harder For Most
Seeking Alpha · 1d ago
Dollar Consolidates But Adjustment Is Not Over
Higher than expected US CPI for the third consecutive month drove US interest rates sharply higher and lifted the greenback broadly. The market appears to be catching its breath today, but the shallow consolidation suggests the moves are not over. The dollar has reached nearly JPY153.30. Gold fell by about $18.75 an ounce yesterday, its largest loss in about a month.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
Why We Won't See A Recession In 2024
The jobs market is unlikely to lead to a recession in 2024. Wage growth continues to trend lower, while a spike in unemployment that would trigger a recession appears unlikely from here. The labour market is cooling, but is expected to begin to tighten in the coming years. The decline in wage growth has been caused by a lack of labour supply.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
AIER Everyday Price Index Hits All-Time Record In March 2024
AIER Everyday Price Index saw its third largest increase in over a year in March 2024, shooting up 0.82 percent. The largest price increases were seen in motor fuel, food away from home, and internet services. US Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index data for March 2024 on April 10, 2024.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
Beneath The Skin Of CPI Inflation, March: Inflation Behaves Very Badly, Saga Far From Over
Consumer Price Index for March was just as bad as in February. Inflation in "core services" jumped by 5.6% annualized in March from February. Ugly inflation in services drives up the 3-month overall CPI to worst since Nov 2022. The Fed has been in desperate search of confidence that inflation would cool after the Amazing Cooling.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
Expect A Rate Cut In November Or None At All
Today's hotter-than-expected CPI all but eliminates the odds of a Fed rate cut in June. The likelihood of cuts between July and October is slim because the pace of change is too slow to justify a cut. We've made tremendous progress in the fight against inflation. The Fed should see a cut in November or none at all.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
Q1 2024 Update: Gold Rallies
Home Market Outlook Today's Market Q1 2024 Update: Gold Rallies. Global equity markets reached record levels in the first quarter of 2024, driven by perceived resilient economic data. But investors would be prudent to recognize that such data tells us little about real economic conditions. Gold experienced a substantial rally alongside 'risk-on' assets.
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
U.S. Inflation Quashes The Chances Of A June Fed Rate Cut
Seeking Alpha · 2d ago
Brad Simpson On 'Vibecession' And What It's Telling Us About Market Sentiment
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
The Hot CPI Report May Be A Big Problem For The Market
March CPI and core CPI came in higher than expected, burying the rate cut narrative. The disinflation process is dead, with core CPI rising at a faster rate than previous months. Expectations for higher CPI in the coming months will likely lead to a surge in two-year yields and a stronger dollar.
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
When Will Central Banks Cut Interest Rates?
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets
Margin debt levels have surged as bullish investors leverage their bets in the equity market. The increase in leverage represents increased risk-taking by investors in the stock market. Margin debt is not a technical indicator for trading markets. As consumer confidence improves, so does the speculative demand for equities.
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
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