Weekly Commentary: In A Jumble

Weekly Market Outlook: Central Banks And U.S. Earnings. Will The BoJ Hike Rates?

Global markets experienced a volatile week, influenced by a tech selloff, China growth concerns, and anticipation of central bank decisions. Despite the volatility, US equity funds saw inflows of $2.17 billion for the week. The FOMC and BoJ meetings and US NFP data will dominate the week ahead.

Is The Dramatic Yen Short Squeeze Over?

Rates Spark: Euro Rates Eyeing Quicker ECB Cuts

Multi-Asset Mid-Year Outlook Global Growth Picture Supports Risk Assets

Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update

Richard Drury updated his most recent update of country risk for July 2024. He looks at political structure, exposure to war/violence, corruption, and protections for property rights. He argues that a trade-off between democracy and autocracy is more risky for investors. He says a democratic country is more likely to be stable and predictable.

Looking Back At Equity Factors In Q2 2024 With WisdomTree

Yen's Surge Continues, While PBOC Surprises With Another Rate Cut, And U.S. 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion

Yen's Surge Continues, While PBOC Surprises With Another Rate Cut, And U.S. 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion. The powerful short-covering rally of the yen and unwinding of carry trades continues. For the second time this week, the PBOC has surprised by cutting interest rates. The US 2-10-year yield curve is the least inverted in two years.

Rates Spark: Weak PMIs Help Build The Case For Rate Cuts

Weaker eurozone PMIs have helped markets price in two more ECB rate cuts for 2024. US manufacturing PMI slipped back below 50 and new home sales weakened, but services PMI edged higher. We continue to view the environment as prone to more risk-off, higher volatility and lower market rates.

Flash PMI Signals Stalling Of Eurozone Economy

July PMIs Point To A Very Sluggish Eurozone Recovery

Greenback And Yen Extend Gains

Rates Spark: Why September Looks Like A Good Month For An ECB Rate Cut

Rates Spark: Markets Are Still Digesting Biden's Departure

US Biden's withdrawal did not have a material impact on EUR rates. The biggest impact for Treasuries was a late-in-the-day rise in yields. Weaker growth data later this week should help the EUR curve steepening. The ECB's Survey of Monetary Analysts shows a well-anchored ECB terminal rate of 2.25%.

Short Covering Squeezes The Yen Higher

Weekly Report: what happened at HEZU last week (0715-0719)?

Dollar Mixed As Markets Digest U.S. Political Developments

Weekly Commentary: Election On The Brink

Americans fear their country is spiraling out of control following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump. This week likely marked the onset of a period of de-risking/deleveraging. The S&P 500 was at record highs in Monday's trading. Doug Noland offers his weekly market commentary.

ECB: Next Stop, September

Global Consumer Spending Shows Resilience In Second Quarter