Weekly Bund Yield And FX Forecast, July 19: Projecting Likely 10-Year Bund Yield Range In 2034

Inverted Bund yields continued this week with the negative 2-year/10-year yield spread at negative 31.4 basis points. The probability of negative spreads in the 91-day period ending January 17, 2025 has moved to 58.1% from 58.9% last week. German Bund yields show a steady downward shift in yields in the first seven years.

Weekly Report: what happened at FXE last week (0715-0719)?

Last week recap: U.S. Treasury yields and dollar see swings

U.S. Treasury yields and dollar see swings last week as markets react to economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The 10-year yield increased by about 5 basis points to 4.24% on Friday. The US dollar's movement during last week was driven by political events and economic data.

Dollar Consolidation Is Morphing Into Correction

European Central Bank Holds Interest Rates Unchanged, Keeps Markets Guessing On September Rate Cut

The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. The Governing Council did not provide specific guidance on future policy. European equity markets rose on the news. Services inflation remains elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above the ECB's 2% target.

Euro Trades Quietly Ahead Of ECB Meeting

Euro Trades Quietly Ahead Of ECB Meeting. The US dollar enjoys a firmer bias today, in mostly quiet turnover in narrow ranges. There is little chance of a change in the ECB's key interest rates today. The big event today is the ECB meeting. US S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are modestly higher.

Dollar Crushed, Stocks Slump

Dollar has fallen to its lowest level in a month against the Japanese yen. US retail sales were better than expected last month. The dollar's intraday momentum indicators are stretched ahead of the North American open. Equities were mixed in Asia but have fallen in Europe. Gold extended its record high above $2482.

Weekly Bund Yield And FX Forecast, July 12, 2024: Long-Term Yields Shift Down

GBP long positions are nearing stretched levels - MS

Investors added long positions to the Japanese yen and the British pound last week. The Euro and the Yen saw the largest improvement in MS’s Daily Sentiment Index. Speculative U.S. Dollar futures positioning was reduced to 18.8% of open interest.

Weekly Report: what happened at FXE last week (0708-0712)?

Tap Dancing Over Lava

Asia And Europe Markets Advance, Dollar Retreats After Powell's Dovish Stance - Global Markets Today While US Slept

U.S. Stock markets closed higher on Wednesday, July 10. Nasdaq and the S&P 500 set consecutive record highs. Japanese stocks hit record highs, and other Asian markets rose as well. Asian stocks rose ahead of upcoming inflation data and earnings reports. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on a potential September rate cut also helped Asian markets.

France Elections: Far-Right Rejected In Second Round, But So Is Macronism

Far-right party National Rally fell from first to third place in second round of French elections. French voters decisively rejected the far-right populism of Marine Le Pen's party in the second round. It is unclear how a new government can be formed in a hung parliament. President Macron's centrist coalition squeezed into second place.

Asia Markets Rise, Europe Dips While Dollar Advances - Global Markets Today While US Slept

U.S. Stock markets closed mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.92% on Tuesday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.08%. The NikkeI index surged driven by gains in semiconductor shares and a weakened yen.

Weekly Bund Yield And FX Forecast, July 5, 2024: Pricing Currency Options To 30 Years

Inverted Bund yields continued this week with the negative 2-year/10-year yield spread at negative 36.2 basis points. The probability of negative spreads in the 91-day period ending January 3, 2025 has moved to 67.4% from 60.4%. Inverted yields are an important indicator of future recessions.

Asia Markets Dip While Europe Advances, Crude Cools 1% - Global Markets Today While US Slept

U.S. Stock markets closed higher on Friday, July 5th, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting record highs. Weak labor market data boosted hopes for September rate cuts. Most Asian stocks fell on Monday, led by Chinese markets amid trade war concerns.

Weekly Report: what happened at FXE last week (0701-0705)?

France election: Political deadlock as leftists score shock win, far right comes in third

France will see its first parliament without a dominant party. Left-wing alliance New Popular Front wins 178 seats in the National Assembly. Far right comes in third with 143 seats. No side secured a majority in legislative elections. It's unclear how the parties will move forward to form a government.

ETFs to Boost Gains Amid Rising Rate Cut Expectations

Asia In Red, UK Advances As Labour Party Wins Majority, While US Dollar Dips Ahead Of Payrolls Data - Global Markets Today While US Slept

U.S. Stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday, July 3rd. S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs, driven by hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly, impacted by declines in healthcare and consumer stocks. Japan's Nikkei 225 and China's Shanghai Composite both closed lower.