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Weekly Report: what happened at FTSD last week (0415-0419)?
Weekly Report · 22h ago
Why Haven't We Whipped Inflation Yet?
Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 4.5% over the last three months. Inflation accelerated during the first quarter. By conventional measures, money looks tight. The money supply suggests money is tight. Yet inflation accelerates. Alexander Salter says inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Seeking Alpha · 3d ago
Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest
Seeking Alpha · 4d ago
Belated March CPI Analysis
Seeking Alpha · 4d ago
Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields
Seeking Alpha · 5d ago
A (Un)Certain Framework
Seeking Alpha · 6d ago
U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm
Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.
Seeking Alpha · 04/16 07:39
Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech
Seeking Alpha · 04/15 16:40
Weekly Report: what happened at FTSD last week (0408-0412)?
Weekly Report · 04/15 12:08
U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts
US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.
Seeking Alpha · 04/13 18:40
Federal Reserve Policy Rate Path: An Evolving Picture
Strong economic data has led to significant shifts in market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting policy rates. Financial market expectations have now shifted from six rate cuts to just two cuts this year. The first rate reduction is now expected to come in September. The Fed continues to expect to cut rates this year, but there is a risk to this forecast.
Seeking Alpha · 04/13 00:50
Flash Insights: March Inflation - Yet Another Reason To Delay Easing
US headline and core Consumer Price Index topped expectations - both rising 0.4%. Transportation, medical and other personal services largely drove the rise. Core goods CPI turned negative once again - down 0.2% m/m. On a six-month annualized basis, core CPI is now near 4%, while supercore CPI is above 6%.
Seeking Alpha · 04/12 10:25
2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped
Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.
Seeking Alpha · 04/12 09:00
Beneath The Skin Of CPI Inflation, March: Inflation Behaves Very Badly, Saga Far From Over
Consumer Price Index for March was just as bad as in February. Inflation in "core services" jumped by 5.6% annualized in March from February. Ugly inflation in services drives up the 3-month overall CPI to worst since Nov 2022. The Fed has been in desperate search of confidence that inflation would cool after the Amazing Cooling.
Seeking Alpha · 04/11 09:00
Expect A Rate Cut In November Or None At All
Today's hotter-than-expected CPI all but eliminates the odds of a Fed rate cut in June. The likelihood of cuts between July and October is slim because the pace of change is too slow to justify a cut. We've made tremendous progress in the fight against inflation. The Fed should see a cut in November or none at all.
Seeking Alpha · 04/11 08:10
U.S. Inflation Quashes The Chances Of A June Fed Rate Cut
Seeking Alpha · 04/11 04:04
When Will Central Banks Cut Interest Rates?
Seeking Alpha · 04/10 16:30
Inflation, Poor Sales, And Fewer Jobs
The NFIB's reading on small business sentiment dropped to 88.5 in March. The index is the weakest reading since December 2012. The percentage of small firms reporting poor sales as their biggest issue is on the rise. Inflation and higher prices ticked higher in the survey. The most significant decline in hiring plans is down to the lowest levels since spring 2020.
Seeking Alpha · 04/09 23:30
Inflation Is Inevitable, You Must Act Now
Inflation is inevitable in the long term, and investors should prepare their portfolios for this environment. The current economic situation shares similarities with the period spanning from the Roaring Twenties to World War II. Gold, oil, and Bitcoin are expected to be good inflation hedges.
Seeking Alpha · 04/09 15:25
Is The FOMC Backing Down?
During the March FOMC meeting, the Committee held its target rate range constant at 5.25-5.5%. The bump in inflation in January and February and the strong labor market have caused participants to reassess their view of the path for policy. Nine of the participants thought three rate cuts would be appropriate in 2024.
Seeking Alpha · 04/09 10:00
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