U.S. Household Spending Holds Firm

Retail sales beat all expectations. US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected. With jobs, inflation, and activity all beating expectations, the Federal Reserve is in no position to cut interest rates. We expect spending and inflation to slow, but the Fed won't be contemplating rate cuts.

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Weekly Report: what happened at FTSD last week (0408-0412)?

U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts

US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.

Federal Reserve Policy Rate Path: An Evolving Picture

Strong economic data has led to significant shifts in market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting policy rates. Financial market expectations have now shifted from six rate cuts to just two cuts this year. The first rate reduction is now expected to come in September. The Fed continues to expect to cut rates this year, but there is a risk to this forecast.

Flash Insights: March Inflation - Yet Another Reason To Delay Easing

US headline and core Consumer Price Index topped expectations - both rising 0.4%. Transportation, medical and other personal services largely drove the rise. Core goods CPI turned negative once again - down 0.2% m/m. On a six-month annualized basis, core CPI is now near 4%, while supercore CPI is above 6%.

2 Things About The PPI: March Seasonal Adjustments Were Huge, And 3-Month Rates All Jumped

Producer Price Index jumped by 6.2% annualized in March from February. The three-month rate of the PPI jumped 7.8% in March, the highest since June 2022. Seasonal adjustments in March were much larger than in the years before the pandemic. The PPI is seasonally adjusted, and all three- month rates all jumped in March.

Beneath The Skin Of CPI Inflation, March: Inflation Behaves Very Badly, Saga Far From Over

Consumer Price Index for March was just as bad as in February. Inflation in "core services" jumped by 5.6% annualized in March from February. Ugly inflation in services drives up the 3-month overall CPI to worst since Nov 2022. The Fed has been in desperate search of confidence that inflation would cool after the Amazing Cooling.

Expect A Rate Cut In November Or None At All

Today's hotter-than-expected CPI all but eliminates the odds of a Fed rate cut in June. The likelihood of cuts between July and October is slim because the pace of change is too slow to justify a cut. We've made tremendous progress in the fight against inflation. The Fed should see a cut in November or none at all.

U.S. Inflation Quashes The Chances Of A June Fed Rate Cut

When Will Central Banks Cut Interest Rates?

Inflation, Poor Sales, And Fewer Jobs

The NFIB's reading on small business sentiment dropped to 88.5 in March. The index is the weakest reading since December 2012. The percentage of small firms reporting poor sales as their biggest issue is on the rise. Inflation and higher prices ticked higher in the survey. The most significant decline in hiring plans is down to the lowest levels since spring 2020.

Inflation Is Inevitable, You Must Act Now

Inflation is inevitable in the long term, and investors should prepare their portfolios for this environment. The current economic situation shares similarities with the period spanning from the Roaring Twenties to World War II. Gold, oil, and Bitcoin are expected to be good inflation hedges.

Is The FOMC Backing Down?

During the March FOMC meeting, the Committee held its target rate range constant at 5.25-5.5%. The bump in inflation in January and February and the strong labor market have caused participants to reassess their view of the path for policy. Nine of the participants thought three rate cuts would be appropriate in 2024.

Will Sticky Inflation Kill Prospects For Rate Cuts In 2024?

What The Bond Market Knows For Certain... That Just Ain't So

Home Investing Strategy Fixed Income Analysis What The Bond Market Knows For certain... That Just Ain't So. Jeffrey Rosenberg: The bond market outlook has improved as expected rate cuts align more closely with the Fed's projections for 2024. He says investors are positioned for a steepening of the yield curve as the Fed cuts interest rates.

Playing Demographic Divergence Now

By 2050, one in six people globally will be over the age of 65. The number of people of working age is shrinking across developed markets but growing in emerging markets. Working-age populations are declining in major economies. We favor countries that are better adapting to the demographic shifts.

Weekly Report: what happened at FTSD last week (0401-0405)?

Nothing In The Jobs Report Indicates The Fed Should Cut Rates: Labor Market Plugging Along Just Fine Despite 5.5% Rates

Nothing In The Jobs Report Indicates The Fed Should Cut Rates: Labor Market Plugging Along Just Fine Despite 5.5% Rates. Average hourly earnings rose in March at an annualized rate of 4.3%. The labor force rose by 469,000 in March to 167.9 million. In March, 303,000 payroll jobs were created - better than expected.

Yes, The Labor Market Is Still Not Tight

This month's labor report showed one of the sharpest slowdowns of recent years with the rate of change slowing from 4.6% to 4.2%. The labor market is still not tight enough to cause inflation. The Fed has room to wait on rate cuts.