Rates Spark: Euro Rates Eyeing Quicker ECB Cuts

Rates Spark: Weak PMIs Help Build The Case For Rate Cuts

Weaker eurozone PMIs have helped markets price in two more ECB rate cuts for 2024. US manufacturing PMI slipped back below 50 and new home sales weakened, but services PMI edged higher. We continue to view the environment as prone to more risk-off, higher volatility and lower market rates.

Flash PMI Signals Stalling Of Eurozone Economy

July PMIs Point To A Very Sluggish Eurozone Recovery

Rates Spark: Why September Looks Like A Good Month For An ECB Rate Cut

Rates Spark: Markets Are Still Digesting Biden's Departure

US Biden's withdrawal did not have a material impact on EUR rates. The biggest impact for Treasuries was a late-in-the-day rise in yields. Weaker growth data later this week should help the EUR curve steepening. The ECB's Survey of Monetary Analysts shows a well-anchored ECB terminal rate of 2.25%.

Weekly Report: what happened at DBEZ last week (0715-0719)?

ECB: Next Stop, September

Rates Spark: Lagarde Clear About Not Committing To Cuts

Rates Spark: ECB Unlikely To Satisfy Doves

European Central Bank is not likely to cut at this meeting and will likely refrain from committing to future cuts. Markets are already pricing in two more 25bp cuts for this year. In the US, the momentum is stronger towards a rate cut. In France, the political challenges continue to evolve but markets remain unmoved.

Evolving Geopolitics Create Opportunities

Home Investing Strategy Portfolio Strategy Evolving Geopolitics Create Opportunities. William Blair says the world economy is clearly growing. He says major economies are growing at or above their potential rates. Every geopolitical change presents opportunities to someone, somewhere, he says. Blair says there's a disconnect between the geopolitical narrative and economic reality.

Rates Spark: Pricing Of ECB Cuts Facing Limits

Market pricing for 2024 ECB cuts looks stretched. Markets are now pricing in 48bp of ECB cuts in 2024, just shy of two full 25bp cuts. Three UK rate cuts still on the table this year. The Fed’s Beige Book is scheduled for later today.

Rates Spark: Trump Assassination Attempt Contributes To Steeper Curves

Weekly Report: what happened at DBEZ last week (0708-0712)?

Could Labour's Victory Benefit European High Yield?

New U.K. Government’s manifesto contains a number of policies that are likely to support some sectors within the European high yield universe. The government is hoping to support the construction of 1.5 million new homes within the next five years. The construction sector could also benefit from the government's green energy initiatives.

France Elections: Far-Right Rejected In Second Round, But So Is Macronism

Far-right party National Rally fell from first to third place in second round of French elections. French voters decisively rejected the far-right populism of Marine Le Pen's party in the second round. It is unclear how a new government can be formed in a hung parliament. President Macron's centrist coalition squeezed into second place.

Weekly Report: what happened at DBEZ last week (0701-0705)?

Global PMI Signals Cooler Services Inflation In June, But Goods Prices Show Further Rise

A Stronger U.S. Dollar - Will EMS Feel The Pinch?

A Stronger U.S. Dollar - Will EMS Feel The Pinch? in 2024. The US dollar has strengthened notably in 2024 with the shift in market expectations to higher rates for longer in the US. A strong US dollar could have consequences for emerging markets (EMs) specifically. However, we believe EMs as an asset class will be more resilient to the consequences of a stronger dollar.

France Elections: Far-Right Knocking On Gates Of Power After First Round

Far-right party National Rally emerged as the strongest party in France's first round of elections for the National Assembly. The centrist parties are calling for a withdrawal of candidates and tactical voting to prevent an RN government. Russell Investments says investors should expect heightened market volatility as the second round of voting is held on July 7. France Elections: Far-Right Knocking On Gates Of Power After First Round.