Is The Dramatic Yen Short Squeeze Over?

Rates Spark: Euro Rates Eyeing Quicker ECB Cuts

Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update

Richard Drury updated his most recent update of country risk for July 2024. He looks at political structure, exposure to war/violence, corruption, and protections for property rights. He argues that a trade-off between democracy and autocracy is more risky for investors. He says a democratic country is more likely to be stable and predictable.

Yen's Surge Continues, While PBOC Surprises With Another Rate Cut, And U.S. 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion

Yen's Surge Continues, While PBOC Surprises With Another Rate Cut, And U.S. 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion. The powerful short-covering rally of the yen and unwinding of carry trades continues. For the second time this week, the PBOC has surprised by cutting interest rates. The US 2-10-year yield curve is the least inverted in two years.

Rates Spark: Weak PMIs Help Build The Case For Rate Cuts

Weaker eurozone PMIs have helped markets price in two more ECB rate cuts for 2024. US manufacturing PMI slipped back below 50 and new home sales weakened, but services PMI edged higher. We continue to view the environment as prone to more risk-off, higher volatility and lower market rates.

Flash PMI Signals Stalling Of Eurozone Economy

July PMIs Point To A Very Sluggish Eurozone Recovery

Greenback And Yen Extend Gains

Rates Spark: Why September Looks Like A Good Month For An ECB Rate Cut

Rates Spark: Markets Are Still Digesting Biden's Departure

US Biden's withdrawal did not have a material impact on EUR rates. The biggest impact for Treasuries was a late-in-the-day rise in yields. Weaker growth data later this week should help the EUR curve steepening. The ECB's Survey of Monetary Analysts shows a well-anchored ECB terminal rate of 2.25%.

Short Covering Squeezes The Yen Higher

Weekly Report: what happened at RFEU last week (0715-0719)?

Dollar Mixed As Markets Digest U.S. Political Developments

ECB: Next Stop, September

Global Consumer Spending Shows Resilience In Second Quarter

Weekly Market Outlook: U.S. PCE, GDP, And Earnings Expected To Drive Volatility

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Weekly Market Outlook: U.S. PCE, GDP, And Earnings Expected To Drive Volatility. This week, markets were influenced by trade war fears, US political developments, and a global cyber outage. In Asia, the Japanese yen weakened, and Chinese authorities remained silent on economic goals. Next week, US PCE and GDP data will be key drivers of market volatility.

Rates Spark: Lagarde Clear About Not Committing To Cuts

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook Q3 2024: Policy And Politics

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook Q3 2024: Policy And Politics. Neuberger Berman says political and market volatility is likely to rise in the second half of the year. We are concerned that the U.S. Federal Reserve may wait too long to make its first rate cut.

Rates Spark: ECB Unlikely To Satisfy Doves

European Central Bank is not likely to cut at this meeting and will likely refrain from committing to future cuts. Markets are already pricing in two more 25bp cuts for this year. In the US, the momentum is stronger towards a rate cut. In France, the political challenges continue to evolve but markets remain unmoved.

Rates Spark: Pricing Of ECB Cuts Facing Limits

Market pricing for 2024 ECB cuts looks stretched. Markets are now pricing in 48bp of ECB cuts in 2024, just shy of two full 25bp cuts. Three UK rate cuts still on the table this year. The Fed’s Beige Book is scheduled for later today.