2.8% Growth Vs. 28% Recession Risk: The New Economic Landscape In 2024

Gross domestic product last quarter increased by 2.8%, a hair above average long-term growth. The Federal Reserve may have pulled off a soft landing in their fight against inflation. The Wall Street Journal survey puts the risk of recession over the next 12 months at just 28%. Real GDP grew at 2.7% in Q2 2024.

Above The Noise: Countdown To A Rate Cut

Data indicates that we can expect to see the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut soon. The implied rate suggests that the first cut may be coming in September. Value and small-cap stocks have tended to outperform growth stocks in the past. The first rate cut is expected to come soon.

More Good Inflation News: David Berson's Economic Brief

Inflation Remained Low In June

PCE June 2024: Consistent With Soft Landing

Real PCE for June 2024 increased by +0.22%, slightly above the median forecast. Personal spending accelerated in June, but remains below average on a 3-month basis. Prospects for a soft landing are reasonably good, based on inflation and consumer spending data. The Fed can afford to remain patient on rate cuts.

Vanguard spotlights opportunities in the bond market as rates are expected to decline

Vanguard spotlights opportunities in the bond market as rates are expected to decline. Inflation has cooled to levels that would allow for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in 2024. The shorter end of the U.S. 2 Year Treasury yield has fallen 5 basis points to 4.37%.

Rates Spark: Euro Rates Eyeing Quicker ECB Cuts

Multi-Asset Mid-Year Outlook Global Growth Picture Supports Risk Assets

Yield curve between 2s/10s comes to closest level of becoming un-inverted in 9 months

Yield curve between 2s/10s comes to closest level of becoming un-inverted in 9 months on Thursday. The inverted yield curve between the U.S. 2 Year Treasury yield and the 10 year Treasury yield reached its closest level to becoming unverted in nine months. The 2s10s curve continues to steepen and is now 14 basis points away from un- inverting. The inversion took hold in July 2022.

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts. GDP grew an annualised 2.8% in second-quarter 2024. Core PCE deflator rose 2.9% annualised versus the 2.7% expectation.

Rates Spark: Weak PMIs Help Build The Case For Rate Cuts

Weaker eurozone PMIs have helped markets price in two more ECB rate cuts for 2024. US manufacturing PMI slipped back below 50 and new home sales weakened, but services PMI edged higher. We continue to view the environment as prone to more risk-off, higher volatility and lower market rates.

What Biden's Historic Election Decision Means For Markets

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis What Biden's Historic Election Decision Means For Markets. President Joe Biden’s late withdrawal from the presidential race creates a number of significant unknowns. I expect this late-in-the-race turmoil to ramp up short-term market volatility. I’m watching the results of earnings season for signs that market performance may be broadening from the domination of the “Magnificent 7”

Winter (Rate Cuts) Is Coming

The 2024 deficit estimate has increased by $400 billion, a 27% rise from their estimate five months ago. The U.S. Deficit for 2024 is expected to be $2.0 trillion, 7% of our Gross Domestic Product. The CBO forecasts no recession for the next decade. The IMF has warned of runaway spending in the United States.

Rates Spark: Why September Looks Like A Good Month For An ECB Rate Cut

Wolfe Research suggests the 2s/10s yield curve wants to breakout

Wolfe Research suggests the 2s/10s yield curve wants to breakout. The inversion between the U.S. 2 Year Treasury yield and the US10 Year yield remains inverted but looks like it "wants to breakout (steepen)" At the moment, the inversion sits at -26 basis points and is close to being un-inverted.

Rates Spark: Markets Are Still Digesting Biden's Departure

US Biden's withdrawal did not have a material impact on EUR rates. The biggest impact for Treasuries was a late-in-the-day rise in yields. Weaker growth data later this week should help the EUR curve steepening. The ECB's Survey of Monetary Analysts shows a well-anchored ECB terminal rate of 2.25%.

The Best Tech And Energy Stocks Should Remain Strong

Weekly Forecast, July 19, 2024: Why 3-Month Bill Most Likely Range Is Near Zero In 2034

Weekly Report: what happened at IEF last week (0715-0719)?

Last week recap: U.S. Treasury yields and dollar see swings

U.S. Treasury yields and dollar see swings last week as markets react to economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The 10-year yield increased by about 5 basis points to 4.24% on Friday. The US dollar's movement during last week was driven by political events and economic data.