BUZZ-COMMENT-This is a pivotal moment for FX traders

Reuters · 09/15/2023 08:00
BUZZ-COMMENT-This is a pivotal moment for FX traders

- This is a pivotal moment for FX traders who have seen the end of a tightening cycle in the euro zone, and expect the same in the U.S. and UK, at the same time as China is easing and Japan clings to its super-easy policies.

These changes have the potential to spur much bigger rises for equities than the large gains that have already been seen since March, and may also lead to more stable conditions for bonds and a peak for their yields. The recent surge for commodities adds to the likelihood of big changes in currency markets.

There is cause to eye rebounds for currencies which have dropped significantly during tightening cycles, and because some of these drops have been extreme, their corrections could be very large.

At this point China's yuan, India's rupee, Sweden's crown and Turkey's lira are record lows, while Russia's rouble, South Africa's rand, Israel's shekel, Hong Kong dollar, Taiwan dollar, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, Philippine peso, and Indonesian rupiah are trading towards the lows of large declines. So are Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars.

Not only are these currencies weak - traders are also short all of the Asian currencies in a Reuters FX poll, and they are short AUD, NZD and CAD, while they have recently pared previously favoured bets like those on Mexican peso rising and similar bullish bets for other higher yield and free floating currencies like Poland's zloty, Czech crown and Hungarian forint.

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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)