BUZZ-COMMENT-Speculators triple their U.S. dollar convictions

Reuters · 03/25 10:38
BUZZ-COMMENT-Speculators triple their U.S. dollar convictions

- Those bullish on the U.S. dollar have piled into the market, most likely due to a combination of positive fundamental and technical factors.

The speculative long position - derived from contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars - has more than tripled. For the week ending March 19 the speculative long swelled to $11.46 billion from $3.70 billion a week earlier.

Federal Reserve rates are expected to remain well above those of other major central banks throughout 2024, according to the LSEG Interest Rate Probability App and that should keep the greenback's bias on the upside.

The USD index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, ended last week above the daily cloud that currently spans the wide 102.790-104.033 region. The scope grows for bigger gains and an eventual test of the 2024 104.97 high, a break above which would unmask the 105.752 Fibo, a 76.4% retrace of the 107.340 to 100.610 (October to December) drop.

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(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)