A Look At The Fair Value Of Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ZBH)
Simply Wall St · 01/29 11:18

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Zimmer Biomet Holdings is US$139 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Zimmer Biomet Holdings' US$122 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
  • Analyst price target for ZBH is US$133 which is 4.6% below our fair value estimate

Does the January share price for Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ZBH) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Zimmer Biomet Holdings

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$1.45b US$1.67b US$1.77b US$1.87b US$1.64b US$1.65b US$1.67b US$1.69b US$1.72b US$1.75b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x5 Analyst x4 Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 0.62% Est @ 1.10% Est @ 1.44% Est @ 1.67% Est @ 1.84%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3% US$1.4k US$1.5k US$1.4k US$1.4k US$1.2k US$1.1k US$1.0k US$962 US$911 US$865

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$12b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.8b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (7.3%– 2.2%) = US$35b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$35b÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)10= US$17b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$29b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$122, the company appears about fair value at a 12% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NYSE:ZBH Discounted Cash Flow January 29th 2024

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zimmer Biomet Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.016. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Zimmer Biomet Holdings

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Medical Equipment market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Zimmer Biomet Holdings, we've compiled three essential factors you should look at:

  1. Risks: Be aware that Zimmer Biomet Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
  2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for ZBH's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.