Despite U.S. Resilience, Recessionistas Still Expect Trouble

Despite u.s. Resilience, recessionistas still expect trouble. Ism survey data points to high recession risk. The weakness in new manufacturing orders for november – via ism survey data – points to a recession. The us was supposed to be in recession by now, but gdp surged in third quarter.

Macro: Durable Goods

Durable goods peaked in the short term in june. The $16b drop in durable goods orders is from a drop in non defense aircraft orders. Aircraft orders are significant. Growth in the less volatile capex series is still positive. We are slowing from the best growth of the last 30 years.

The Economic Downturn Is Underway, But Expect A Rebound In 2024

Economic resilience continues to be the theme of 2023, says christopher yates. The us economy is neither in recessionary territory nor expanding, he says. Economic growth remains robust, but we are likely to see a slow but steady deterioration in hard economic data in the coming months. Longer-term leading indicators suggest a rebound in growth in the second half of 2024.

Some U.S. Economy Big Picture Charts

Six charts that look at the u.s. Economy from a big picture perspective. I don't find anything sinister or strange in these charts. I see an economy that is growing moderately (perhaps only modestly) i see a healthy labor market, an equity market that is rising and a dollar that has been fortified.

Are The Headlines About Factory Orders Messing With Us Again?

Unfilled orders rose to an all-time high of $1.36 trillion in october, according to the census bureau. Manufacturing orders plunged by the most since april 2020. The drop in new orders was mostly caused by a plunge in nondefense aircraft orders. But other industries saw record manufacturing orders.

The Fourth Quarter Started Slow, But It May Finish Strong

Home prices in las vegas declined at a 1.9% annual pace in october. Consumer spending slowed to a 0.7% pace in september, according to the commerce department. The fed's beige book revealed that consumers pulled back on discretionary spending. The fourth quarter gdp may come in better than first feared.

Weekly Report: what happened at RSPN last week (1127-1201)?

Global Factory Job Losses Continue As Demand Downturn Persists In November

Global manufacturing business conditions worsened for a fifteenth successive month in november. New export orders for goods falling globally for a twenty-first straight month. Europe saw the steepest downturn, while production returned to growth in mainland china. Global factory output edges lower again in november amid further demand fall.

US Factories Report Job Losses As Demand Deteriorates, But Price Pressures Weaken

Us manufacturing business conditions worsened in november according to s&p global's us pmi survey. Manufacturers cut payroll numbers for a second month in a row, leading to a back-to-back drop in employment. Weak demand and reduced wage pressures resulted in lower input cost and selling price inflation in november. Output barely rose as new order inflows deteriorated and backlogs of orders depleted.

TD Asset Management says Industrials show there's strength beyond Big Tech

Td asset management says industrials show there's strength beyond big tech in 2023. 132 stocks in the s&p 500 have outperformed the index as a whole. 27 of those are in the industrial sector, says td asset management's ben gossack.

Dallas Fed Still In Contraction

New home sales and the dallas fed's reading on manufacturing activity came in worse than expected. The general business activity index has now been in contraction for 19 straight months. New orders and the order growth rate are at post-pandemic lows, but prices are rising.

Weekly Report: what happened at RSPN last week (1120-1124)?

Flash PMIs Mixed

Manufacturing activity slipped back into contraction in november. S&p global releases global flash pmi readings for november. Manufacturing pmi has been at or below 50 for 12 of the last 13 months and the last 7 straight. Services activity rose sequentially for the 10th straight month of expansion.

Macro: Industrial Production

Industrial production continues to show negative growth. This month is much better than the previous month. Industrial production is down 0.7% in november. The decline in industrial production is the worst since the start of the recession in 2009. The economy is still in recessionary territory.

Weekly Report: what happened at RSPN last week (1113-1117)?

Bad Expectations Out Of New York

New york fed released the empire state manufacturing survey on wednesday morning. The headline number rose back into expansion at 9.1, but expectations dropped 24 points month over month. The report indicated weak demand as new orders remain in contraction. Average workweek expectations hit the highest level since march of last year.

RSPN: Industrials Dashboard For November

Dashboard shows aggregate subsector metrics in industrials. Transportation is the only industry with a good value score. Invesco s&p 500® equal weight industrials etf provides an edge in risk and valuation over capital-weighted etfs. The dashboard is a monthly review of sector exchange-traded funds.

Is Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Industrials ETF (RSPN) a Strong ETF Right Now?

Weekly Report: what happened at RSPN last week (1106-1110)?

Workers Are Missing Cog In U.S. Manufacturing Gears

Home market outlook economy analysis workers are missing cog in u.s. Manufacturing gears. A factory construction boom sparked by president joe biden’s industrial policies has led to unbridled optimism in the industry. Lipper alpha insight will be on hand to help you understand the market.