How Did The Fed Come Up With That 2% Inflation Target? Consider The Facts

Jim Sloan says the Fed has a 2% inflation goal for the US economy. The long term average for inflation is actually slightly above 3%, contradicting the Fed's 2% goal. The natural tendency of inflation is probably 3% and the Fed will find it difficult to reach a sustainable 2%. Inflation is an established element in stock returns.

Is Buffett's Cash Hoard A Market Warning?

Warren Buffett’s cash and short-term investments (read T-bills) exceed $189 billion as of Q1, 2024. The current market capitalization-to-GDP ratio is outside the historical range. With the size of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's cash hoard is difficult to deploy.

The Dollar Continues To Recover

The dollar's recovery begun yesterday has extended into today's activity. The greenback is higher against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. China's new property initiative may not have helped the yuan. Japan's markets were mixed, but South Korea, Taiwan, and New Zealand shares fell. Gold is consolidating after reaching a four week high yesterday.

Chart Of The Moment: Not All Jobs Are Equal

3 Things - CPI, The Stock Market 'Casino' And Stagflation

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis 3 Things - CPI, The Stock Market 'Casino' And Stagflation. Wednesday's CPI report was a big relief for the Fed after 4 consecutive upside surprises. Inflation continues to move in the right direction, but unemployment is well below trend. Dave Portnoy of Barstool Sports calls the stock market a casino.

3 Major Things That Are Nothing Like 2008

Bret Jensen says the key sectors that triggered the Great Financial Crisis are in substantially better shape than they were in 2008. He says the major financial institutions are in much better shape now than in 2008 and the residential real estate market is in good shape. He cites three major things that are nothing like 2008 in the current market backdrop.

Beneath The Skin Of April CPI Inflation: 6-Month Core CPI Hits 4%, 6-Month Core Services CPI Hits 6%, Both Highest Since Mid-2023

This Current Wave Of Inflation Is Not Transitory, The First Wave Was

U.S. Inflation: Work In Progress

'Higher For Longer': The Market Is Over It... You Should Be Too

April CPI Report: Finally, Some Good Inflation News

April CPI reading delivered the first (slight) downside inflation surprise since the turn of the year. Headline inflation slowed to in April, the first cooling in six months. Core inflation also eased to the lowest level since April 2021. Retail sales also came in weaker than expected in April.

Rate Cuts And Elections: Two Market Catalysts On The Horizon

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Rate Cuts And Elections: Two Market Catalysts On The Horizon. Key market catalysts to come: Rate cuts and the . Presidential election. MoneyTalk's Greg Bonnell talks with Jing Roy, VP, Director & Portfolio Manager, TD Asset Management.

April CPI Inflation Data And Its Impact On Equity Returns

April Consumer Price Index increased from March, largely driven by shelter and gasoline prices. Bureau of Labor Statistics just released the inflation data for April 2024. Jonathan Kitchen says rate cuts in 2024 are unlikely in his view, leading to gloomy projections for major equity indices. A few alternative tactical investment ideas are suggested, including short-term bonds and energy/oil stocks.

No New Orders And No Spending In The Empire State

No New Orders And No Spending In The Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The NY Fed manufacturing report came in weaker than expected for the eighth month in a row. The Northeast's manufacturers have the most pessimistic spending plans for labor and capital in the survey's history. New orders and spending plans are the weakest areas of the report.

Inflation Trends Are Embedded, Increasing Stagflation Odds

CPI and Core CPI rose as expected, indicating trends consistent with high inflation rates. Retail sales were disappointing and stagnant, suggesting a potential stagflation-like environment. The economy may be experiencing a stagnating or stagflationary period. The inflation report came in as expected.

AIER Everyday Price Index Rises For Fifth Consecutive Month

AIER Everyday Price Index Rises For Fifth Consecutive Month in April 2024. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2024 on May 15, 2024. In April 2024, fourteen constituents of the Everyday Price index rose in price. The largest increases were in motor fuel, food away from home, and personal care services.

Guesstimating The Level Of Froth In U.S. Stocks

Will USD Be Bought After Being Sold On Expectations Of A Softer CPI?

The market expects softer US CPI and retail sales data today. The dollar is trading weakly against G10 currencies and emerging market currencies. US interest rates are softer, with Treasury yields at their lowest level since April 10. Softer yields and a weaker dollar have lifted gold and copper to record levels.

How The Fed Uses Quantitative Tightening To Address Inflation

Small Businesses Sit Out Growth