SSO

This Week's Fed Meeting Could Shock Market Rates Higher

The Fed and the market have different projections for interest rates in 2024. The market expects more rate cuts than the Fed. November's inflation data will help shape the pace of projected path. This week's FOMC meeting will likely highlight the differences between where the Fed sees interest rates and where the market sees rates.

Last Big News Cycle For The Market In 2023

Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 199,000 new payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate from 3.9% to 3.7%. Next up, the Consumer Price Index report and the Fed's decision on interest rates on Wednesday. The last big news cycle for the market in calendar year 2023.

Week Ahead: What Central Banks Say May Be More Important Than What They Do

The week ahead is chock full of central bank meetings. Gold experienced a significant drop below $2000 after reaching a record high above $2135. The US dollar fell by over 2.1% against the Japanese yen due to concerns the Bank of Japan would raise rates. WTI oil prices fell to their lowest level in five months.

Worldwide Employment Stalls As Businesses Report Further Weakness Of Demand

Global output remained largely stalled in November according to the S&P Global PMI surveys. Manufacturing output edged marginally lower globally in November, down for a sixth successive month. Demand conditions remained subdued globally, notably for financial services and basic manufactured goods. Employment growth has meanwhile stalled as firms grow concerned about excess capacity.

Global PMI Data Hint At Further Cooling Of Inflation In The Months Ahead

Global PMI Data Hint At Further Cooling Of Inflation In The Months Ahead. Average prices charged for goods and services rose globally at a slightly increased rate in November. Global output price inflation increased slightly in November but remains among the weakest in the past three years. Goods selling price inflation is low, while service sector inflation remains elevated. Overall demand environment is subdued, and global inflation is expected to cool in the months ahead.

View On Wall Street: A Good News Bad News Scene

The current macro backdrop continues to be difficult to make sense of. With no strong PRIMARY trend in place, this remains a "traders" market. The US labor market continues to defy gravity. The economy has added 161 million jobs in the last 3 years. Q3 GDP rising 4.9%, its fastest pace since 4Q21.

Consumer Delinquency Rate Remains Below Prior Economic Growth Periods

Consumer Delinquency Rate Remains Below Prior Economic Growth Periods - Todd Sullivan. Every recession was preceded by high consumer delinquency rates. Many equities reflect a recession fear that has not been rewarded. The US economy has been reporting business as usual since recession fears began 2 years ago.

November Job Report Suggests The Market Mispricing Rate Cuts In 2024

Stronger than expected jobs report challenges market expectations for aggressive rate cuts. Wage growth is not consistent with 2% inflation. The job market remains strong, and the wage growth rate remains elevated. The market is pricing in rate cuts in 2024, despite the recent decline in interest rates.