IVW

S&P 500 earnings data (courtesy of IBES data by Refinitiv) continues to show positive sequential increases in weekly S&P 500 earnings estimates for various time frames.The correction being seen in the US equity market - at least so far anyway - isn't supported by a degradation in either the forward 4-quarter S&P 500 EPS estimate or the various time frames covered by the S&P 500's "forward earnings curve".Despite the sharp drop in the large-cap Tech stocks, the Tech sector estimates haven't changed that much.

Over the last several weeks, the S&P 500 has been on a tear, setting records on an almost daily basis despite lacking breadth, with the biggest rises in stock prices concentrated in the technology sector.Until last week, when what we've described as a bubble in stock prices appears to suddenly pop after spiking up to hit an all-time high.Remarkably, the S&P 500 waited to exit the redzone forecast range we've been focused upon for the last six weeks in the alternative futures chart.

The leading performances for the growth and momentum buckets in the US stock market continue to pull ahead, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.Meanwhile, the laggards are falling further behind. At the extreme, the spread between the best and worst year-to-date performances for the factor group is approaching an astonishing 50 percentage points as of the close of trading on September 2.While large-cap growth and momentum are far ahead in this year's horse race, the majority of equity risk factors remain under water for 2020.

Recently, the Federal Reserve confirmed a widely expected shift in monetary policy that will result in near-zero interest rates for the foreseeable future. From their perspective, this stance is justified based on evidence that the U.S. economic recovery will be long, slow, and halting. A full recovery won't come until government safety measures are lifted, and those will likely remain (in some areas, at least) until a vaccine is discovered and distributed. Small business destruction and job losses will not be quickly and easily remedied, and an output gap is projected to persist throughout the decade. Real assets with strong cash flows are extremely attractive in this environment.

There is considerable capital likely to be deployed into equities as investor pessimism eases into optimism.Other than the FAANG issues, there are many equity opportunities yet available.Buy stocks of well-managed companies with active insider buying.

There's nothing subtle about the span of year-to-date returns for a broad set of US equity risk factors.At the extreme, the spread between the strongest and weakest performances is a stunning 40 percentage points, based on a set of exchange-traded funds through yesterday's close (Aug. 25).The strongest year-to-date run is currently held by large-cap growth stocks, based on the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF, which is up a sizzling 23.3% so far in 2020.