TLT

2.8% Growth Vs. 28% Recession Risk: The New Economic Landscape In 2024

Gross domestic product last quarter increased by 2.8%, a hair above average long-term growth. The Federal Reserve may have pulled off a soft landing in their fight against inflation. The Wall Street Journal survey puts the risk of recession over the next 12 months at just 28%. Real GDP grew at 2.7% in Q2 2024.

Above The Noise: Countdown To A Rate Cut

Data indicates that we can expect to see the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut soon. The implied rate suggests that the first cut may be coming in September. Value and small-cap stocks have tended to outperform growth stocks in the past. The first rate cut is expected to come soon.

More Good Inflation News: David Berson's Economic Brief

Inflation Remained Low In June

PCE June 2024: Consistent With Soft Landing

Real PCE for June 2024 increased by +0.22%, slightly above the median forecast. Personal spending accelerated in June, but remains below average on a 3-month basis. Prospects for a soft landing are reasonably good, based on inflation and consumer spending data. The Fed can afford to remain patient on rate cuts.

Vanguard spotlights opportunities in the bond market as rates are expected to decline

Vanguard spotlights opportunities in the bond market as rates are expected to decline. Inflation has cooled to levels that would allow for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in 2024. The shorter end of the U.S. 2 Year Treasury yield has fallen 5 basis points to 4.37%.

Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Falls To 2.5%, Lowest Since February 2021, But Core Remains Sticky: 10 ETFs To Monitor Thursday

U.S. PCE price index falls to 2.5% year-on-year in June, as expected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported lower-than-expected monthly increases in personal spending and personal income. The latest Fed's favorite inflation report showed mixed results for market participants.

Rates Spark: Euro Rates Eyeing Quicker ECB Cuts