U.S. Economic Growth Up, Fed Rate Cuts Coming Later

Goldman Sachs sees core inflation trending lower in 2024, with key PCE report on deck

Goldman Sachs sees core inflation trending lower in 2024, with key PCE report on deck. The bank sees the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge moving down in 2024. The PCE inflation figures could be a significant catalyst for the stock market this week. The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be released on Friday.

April PMI Data: U.S. Economy Cools Amid Mixed Inflation Signals

In April, the pulse of U.S. Business activity slowed to the slowest expansion in four months. Both manufacturing and services sectors saw weaker growth, with employment declining for the first time since June 2020. This cooling in activity has coincided with slightly eased inflation rates. The Federal Reserve will be monitoring the signs of economic cooling.

Yardeni says 'big rally' due for stocks if PCE inflation abates

U.S. Economy Yardeni says 'big rally' due for stocks if PCE inflation abates. The core PCe inflation reading for March is slated to be released Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield dragged the S&P 500 down 5.6% from its all-time high.

Weekly Forecast, April 19, 2024: Higher For 30 Years?

Home Investing Strategy Bonds Analysis Weekly Forecast, April 19, 2024: Higher for 30 years? The Treasury curve was up 9 basis points at 2 years and was up 12 basis points in 10 years over the last week. The current negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread is the longest such streak since 1976. The 1-month forward rate in 30 years jumped 0.19% to 3.77%. Inverted Treasury yield curve is an important indicator of a future recession.

SocGen says short small-cap stocks as they look vulnerable to spike in bond yields

Societe Generale says short small-cap stocks as they look vulnerable to spike in bond yields. The selloff in bonds last week pushed the 10-year yield to 4.7% for the first time in October. SocGen says small caps are still sensitive to bond moves as earnings growth stagnates.

Weekly Report: what happened at TLT last week (0415-0419)?

The Decline of Risk-Parity: Bridgewater's Strategy Faces Investor Exodus

Ray Dalio's risk-parity strategy has underperformed the standard 60/40 stock-to-bond portfolios consistently since 2019. Public pension funds and other institutional investors are pulling billions out of the strategy. The strategy was popularized in 1996 through Bridgewater Associates. The future of risk parity funds hinges on their ability to adapt.

Benzinga Bulls And Bears: Tesla, DraftKings, Broadcom And Trader Says Buy Dogecoin In High 10 Cents If You Get A Chance

Why Haven't We Whipped Inflation Yet?

Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 4.5% over the last three months. Inflation accelerated during the first quarter. By conventional measures, money looks tight. The money supply suggests money is tight. Yet inflation accelerates. Alexander Salter says inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Dollar Dominance And The Ghosts Of 1997

Is The US National Debt Unsustainable? 'We Can't Have A Deficit Of 7% Of The GDP'

IMF deputy chief Gita Gopinath says the U.S. Needs to reduce the federal deficit from its current 7% of GDP to 6%. The US government fiscal deficit ballooned to 8.8% of the GDP in 2023. The IMF's Fiscal Monitor forecasted a slight contraction in 2024, but the deficit is expected to remain above 6% through 2029. The United States' public debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to climb from 122% to 134% by 2029, according to IMF.

How Not to Invest in the Bond Market

In 2023, investors poured a record $54 billion into long-term bond funds specializing in U.S. Government debt. Long-term bonds maturing in 20 years or beyond have lost about 9% so far this year. No one can reliably forecast interest rates, but you can get a good yield with long- term bonds. Hold individual Treasury bonds until they mature in 2044 or beyond.

Treasury Calm Contrasts Investor Rush to Gold and Bitcoin Over Debt Concerns

Investors are increasingly turning to alternative assets like gold and bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. The U.S. Budget deficit is projected to reach $1.7 trillion in the coming years, raising concerns over the sustainability of government finances. Bitcoin and gold are seen as a safe haven against inflation. Despite this, the Treasury market remains relatively stable as a result of investor confidence in the dollar.

Bond yields tick down as cash moves to safety following apparent Israel strike on Iran

Geopolitical Tensions Simmer as Iran Plays Down Reports of Israeli Attack

Iran downplayed what was reported as an Israeli attack on Iranian city of Isfahan. Iran has portrayed the incident as a minor incident, possibly caused by infiltrators. This approach seems to be an effort to maintain stability in the region. Israel has not commented on the incident, and the U.S. Has held back from direct comments.

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Belated March CPI Analysis

Small Group Of Hedge Funds Wields Dominance In US Treasury Market: 'A Concentration Of Vulnerability Has Built Up,' IMF Warns

The International Monetary Fund has raised concerns about hedge funds' increasing short positions in U.S. Treasury futures market. The IMF says a handful of highly leveraged funds now hold most of the short positions. Nearly half of all two-year Treasury futures positions are held by fewer than eight hedge funds. The concentration of short positions by hedge funds could pose systemic threats to the global economy.

Treasury yields resume climb, J.P. Morgan flags risk of US2Y consolidating at 5%