The win rate has soared! The “Trump deal” is making a comeback

As former President Trump's chances of winning the November election in the gaming market continue to rise, the “Trump deal” has been recovering.

Since the beginning of October, betting prediction websites such as Polymarket and Kalshi have clearly been optimistic about Trump.

As of 12:17 p.m. EST on Wednesday, Polymarket's bet on the presidential election results reached nearly $1 billion. Trump's chances of winning were 59.5%, while Harris's chances of winning were 40.3%.

If Trump's chances of winning the November election are superimposed on the various components of the “Trump deal,” it is easy to see that they are highly correlated.

After Harris and Trump debated in mid-September, the “Trump deal” weakened, as Harris was largely seen as the only winner they met.

But as investors re-bet on Trump's victory, market trends suggest that the “Trump deal” is back.

Trump Media Shares

Since Trump gained an advantage in the gaming market on October 4, the stock price of Trump Media Technology Group (“Trump Media”), the parent company of Trump's social media TruthSocial, has soared 87%. The stock rose nearly 11% to $29.93 on Wednesday.

In September, before and after the debate between Harris and Trump, the share price declined as investors were nervous about the expiration of the ban period that would allow insiders, including Trump, to sell the stock.

Trump has said he won't sell nearly 60% of his shares in the company.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's price has risen 11% since October 4. In recent years, Trump's enthusiastic embrace of the cryptocurrency industry has turned Bitcoin into one of the “Trump Deals.”

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani believes that if Trump wins in November, Bitcoin could soar to $90,000.

In a report last month, Chhugani said: “The election results are still difficult to predict, but if you go long on cryptocurrencies now, you're probably just accepting a 'Trump deal'.”

USD

The dollar has risen nearly 3% against a basket of other currencies so far this month.

Trump's policy proposal for a general 20% tariff is viewed as inflationary and may trigger an increase in interest rates, which in turn may boost the dollar.

Capital Economics (Capital Economics) said in a report last month: “If he re-enters the White House in November, the dollar may rebound sharply in anticipation of rising US tariffs and interest rates, at least in the short term.”

Bank stocks

Trump promised that if he is elected as the 47th president of the United States, he will relax regulations, and the banking industry is an industry strictly regulated in Washington DC.

The former president's ally said his goal was to free banks from the burden of many regulations that came into effect after the 2008 financial crisis. Trump tried to do this during his first term, but with mixed success.

Broader deregulation could also trigger a new wave of mergers and acquisitions, as the Trump administration may not be as concerned about antitrust as the Biden administration. More mergers and acquisitions can boost the revenue of big banks and help increase the profitability of transactions.

Since October 4, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF has risen 9%, while the SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF has risen about 10%.

A well-balanced election

Although the betting market points to Trump's victory in November, public opinion polls still suggest that the campaign is essentially a game of victory or loss.

Although some areas of the stock market have soared since Trump gained an advantage in the gaming market on October 4, the overall stock market still shows that Harris will win.

Since 1928, the S&P 500 index has been 83% accurate in predicting election results.

If the S&P 500 index records positive returns within three months before election day, the incumbent party usually wins. Otherwise, the challenging party will win.

Since the three-month countdown began on August 5, election day, the S&P 500 index has risen 9%. As long as the index's rise continues until election day, this indicates that the stock market predicts Harris will win.