QualRecruit Report Indicates Harris’ Support on The Economy Weaker Than Polling Suggests

Barchart · 10/16 13:00

QualRecruit, the high-quality consumer study recruitment provider, today released their study on drivers of economic trust in the 2024 election. The study asked Swing State voters to describe how they envision the future of the US economy under both the candidate they trust on the economy most, as well as the opposing candidate. Specifically, voters that trusted Donald Trump more on the economy and voters who trusted Kamala Harris more on the economy were studied. Video recordings returned by voters were used to generate 52,622 words of transcribed content describing why voters trust their preferred candidate. Supported by AI, thematic analysis of this text strove to add depth and texture to existing polls on swing state voters’ economic preferences.

“In today’s uncertain economic climate voters’ perception of both candidates’ ability to effectively manage issues such as job creation, inflation, economic growth and more may prove to be crucial to who they ultimately support on election day,” said Sebastian Murdoch-Gibson, cofounder of QualRecruit. “Our study shows how QualRecruit’s scalable qualitative data-gathering tools reinforced by AI can rapidly enrich our understanding of the sentiments behind the polling numbers and tell the real story of what is and isn’t driving voter support.”

Key findings:

  • Respondents who described themselves as preferring Harris on the economy were more equivocal and more willing to grant concessions to the advantages of the opposing candidate than those that indicated support for Trump.
  • This may suggest that the people who have indicated they support Harris more on the economy in recent polls are more persuadable on this issue than their Trump-supporting counterparts. Polling of Harris’ support on the economy, while already an area of weakness, may be concealing an underlying “softness” to this support.
  • Regardless of their preferences on the economy, voters were broadly aligned in factual descriptions of both candidates and their economic policies but differed sharply in their interpretations of similar facts:
    • As an example: voters on both sides viewed Trump as likely to implement mass deportations and restrictive immigration policies. However, among his supporters this is framed as a pro-worker effort to tighten the labor market and boost wages. Among his detractors, it is framed as an inflationary policy that will increase prices by tightening the labor market.
    • Harris was viewed on both sides as a Vice-President who has presided over a period of economic hardship. However, among her supporters, she is understood to have been dealing with economic shocks set up by the perceived mismanagement of the Trump administration. Among her detractors, the perceived poor performance of the US economy is attributable to policy decisions for which she is directly responsible or her inaction.

Methodology:

This qualitative study was conducted with 84 likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin between Sept 12 and 22, 2024. Voters were profiled on key demographic criteria in addition to being asked who they trust more on the economy. A subset of voters reflecting an approximate demographic balance of the regions they represent, and a split of Trump and Harris supporters, were selected at random and invited to expound on their support for their preferred candidate in a 4 – 10 minute self-administered video exercise. While qualitative research does not strive for statistical generalizability, its open-ended format supports discovery of a large number of key themes in the way people think about topic areas that may not have been considered by researchers in their initial study design. It is especially useful in adding context and understanding to the results of quantitative studies.

About QualRecruit:

QualRecruit is the qualitative research recruitment company increasing speed to insights by blending traditional participant recruitment methods with qualitative data collection. Their proprietary technology reduces research timelines from weeks to days, while upholding the highest standards of quality.