Shootin' the Bull about recommendations

“Shootin’ The Bull”

End of Day Market Recap

by Christopher Swift

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10/15/2024

Live Cattle:​

I recommend you have every marketing aspect cleaned up, out to the first quarter.  This is a sales solicitation.  I have recommended doing such with a long, at the money put option.  I continue to recommend such.  This is a sales solicitation.  My analysis suggests to sell cattle.  I recommend selling December and or February cattle with a buy stop to exit only at $188.57 December and $189.12 February. This is a sales solicitation.  

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Feeder Cattle:​

I recommend backgrounders hedge everything already owned out to the month you will be marketing them into.  This is a sales solicitation.  I recommend specifically to buy the at the money put and sell the $10.00 out of the money call.  This is a sales solicitation.  I recommend cattle feeders lie in wait for a potential decline of feeder cattle prices to begin procurement of spring inventory.  This is a sales solicitation.  

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I have made a minor adjustment to the wave count on the index that aligns it more so with the pattern on the futures.  That being, making the adjustment on the index of what is believed an irregular B wave.  The completion of the wave count is believed at the 8/21 low with the 9/9 low the bottom of an irregular B wave.  Hence, the current rally to within $.10 of a 50% retracement a wave C and believed completed wave 2 or B.  Next most probable move is to the downside.  The Elliott Wave Theory is based upon the psychological responses of humans to the markets environment.  Today, we have to deal with outside influences from other markets, as well as computerized algorithmic trading that is not necessarily trading in your best interest.  The feeder cattle index though is void of outside market influence as well as computer generated trading programs.  The index is a measure of what a cattle feeder is willing to pay in order to produce a profit margin.  While he may take into consideration input costs, his decision is based upon profit margin.  Long way around the barn, but were the cattle feeder stop bidding at this level of a 50% retracement, and prices begin to fade, the next most probable move would then be the exceeding of the wave 1 or A low at $239.53.  Were this to evolve into a more substantial bear market, then the previous wave 4 at $215.32 would become the next downside target.  While you may assume the risk, I can assure you that if I am correct, you will not have wanted to assume the risk. If I am wrong and this is a minor correction of what is to become a larger up move, then you will still profit and have the pleasure of ribbing me at any time about how wrong I was.  

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​Hogs:

​Hogs were lower today with the index down $.13 at $84.16.​

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Corn:  

​Corn, wheat and beans were all lower.  I expect corn and beans to continue to form a sideways trading range and continue to recommend to buy July Chicago or KC wheat with a sell stop to exit only at $6.10 for either exchange. 

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Energy:

​Energy was sharply lower today.  I expect energy to trade higher. There may be another new low under today's, but I'm not sure.  I recommend booking some winter or spring fuel needs as there is such little carry in the market, one can buy fuel for within a couple of cents between contract months.  This is a sales solicitation. While there may be a lower trade to come, fixing variable costs at levels that you can live with the consequences of, may or may not produce a more profitable out come than a price out side of the consequences you can live with. ​​

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Bonds:

Bonds were sharply higher today.  The bout of inflation set off by the rate cut and Chinese stimulus is believed having a two fold affect.  On one hand, the stimulus/rate cut stimulated prices, producing a flurry of higher prices to market into.  The flip side is that the bout of inflation brought all the past inflation back into the limelight, exposing just how much inflation there is still around.  Lastly, consumers are believed to have cut back and began a more conservative spending habit.  How can equities, commodities, and inflation in general continue as they have?  Excessive government spending.  That is how.  ​​​​​​​​​

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This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation. An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of the margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. 

 

On the date of publication, Chris Swift did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.