TMF

Rates Spark: Weak PMIs Help Build The Case For Rate Cuts

Weaker eurozone PMIs have helped markets price in two more ECB rate cuts for 2024. US manufacturing PMI slipped back below 50 and new home sales weakened, but services PMI edged higher. We continue to view the environment as prone to more risk-off, higher volatility and lower market rates.

What Biden's Historic Election Decision Means For Markets

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis What Biden's Historic Election Decision Means For Markets. President Joe Biden’s late withdrawal from the presidential race creates a number of significant unknowns. I expect this late-in-the-race turmoil to ramp up short-term market volatility. I’m watching the results of earnings season for signs that market performance may be broadening from the domination of the “Magnificent 7”

Rates Spark: Why September Looks Like A Good Month For An ECB Rate Cut

Rates Spark: Markets Are Still Digesting Biden's Departure

US Biden's withdrawal did not have a material impact on EUR rates. The biggest impact for Treasuries was a late-in-the-day rise in yields. Weaker growth data later this week should help the EUR curve steepening. The ECB's Survey of Monetary Analysts shows a well-anchored ECB terminal rate of 2.25%.

The Best Tech And Energy Stocks Should Remain Strong

Weekly Report: what happened at TMF last week (0715-0719)?

Has The Neutral Rate Of Interest Increased?

Rates Spark: Lagarde Clear About Not Committing To Cuts