TLH

The 4-8 year period beginning in February of this year potentially will contain three or more official recessions and come to be referred to as the Depression of the 2020s.The money-supply situation today could not be more different from the money-supply situation during the early 1930s*.Because of the way the Fed measures "inflation", for the Fed to achieve its 2% "inflation" target, the average American's cost of living probably has to increase by at least 5% per year.

Coming into COVID-19, a chunk of client bond money was in higher yielding money markets since credit spreads (in my opinion) offered little value prior to March 2020.After the 35% correction in the S&P 500, and upon the announcement of the Fed liquidity programs, all that money was moved into corporate credit risk (a tactical bet) given the spread widening that happened.Can't recall the source, but Value is on track to outperform Growth for the month, for the first time in years. The question is, "is this sustainable or is it the proverbial dead-cat bounce?"

The great part about the election is, it's a known unknown. Markets are preparing for volatility around the event, even if the event takes months to reconcile.Wall Street is actively hedging risk in that time frame. That itself is bringing down risk surrounding the event.If you can keep your fear and greed under control, you can profit.The CNN Fear and Greed Index is back down to a reasonable 52, which is considered Neutral.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%. The S&P 500 fell 0.64% while the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.16%.Central banks have taken extraordinary measures to provide liquidity to the markets over the past six months.The technology sector will continue to benefit from the growing trends in internet retail, education, entertainment, medicine and work.

Three new forces are set to lift inflation beyond what markets are currently expecting in the years ahead, reversing a decade of subdued price rises.Market volatility has returned after months of steady advances in risk assets, and could stay elevated as the U.S. election draws near.Markets will focus on a slew of purchasing managers’ index data this week to gauge the latest business sentiment.

This article will cover four key macroeconomic themes for year-end 2020.These themes are the Treasury market, oil prices, US dollar foreign exchange rates, and China's economy.I believe these forces will determine the direction of the global stock markets.That is, higher Treasury yields, lower oil prices, stronger USD, and weakening of China's economy will push global stock indexes lower.

On Friday, due to the "quad-witching options expiration" (when all options contracts for the current strike month expire and rollover), the market gave up support at the 50-dma.The markets are very oversold short term, so a tradeable "bounce" remains very likely in the next few days.While you may feel strongly about one party or the other when it comes to politics, it doesn't matter much when it comes to your money.Holding a little extra cash, increasing positioning in Treasury bonds, and adding some "value" to your portfolio will help reduce the risk of a sharp decline in the months ahead.

Powell is struggling to reinforce flagging Federal Reserve credibility.In the 1960s, Alan Greenspan was said to have commented the Great Depression was a consequence of the Fed having repeatedly placed "Coins in the Fuse Box".Is all the hullabaloo really about consumer inflation fractionally below target? And will this be viewed as reasonable by the average American?