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Retail sales and food-services spending posted a strong gain in September.The September gain was the fifth in a row.Core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and gasoline retailers, posted a 1.5 percent gain for the month.Unit vehicle sales, reported earlier in the month, have also staged a very solid recovery.Results across the various categories of retailers were mostly positive in September.

Industrial production has a 100-year-plus record of measuring the production side of the economy.Similarly, retail sales have a 70-year-plus record of measuring the consumption side of the economy.In September, both surprised, as production failed to confirm leading indicators and declined, while sales boomed despite the ending of emergency Congressional assistance.I am inclined to take both with extra grains of salt as potentially impacted by pandemic-related seasonal distortions.

US retail sales are incredibly strong, rising 1.9% month-on-month versus 0.8% consensus.Strength was broad based with 12 out of 13 categories reporting a rise.Nonetheless, we shouldn't take too much away from what was a very good report, which saw sporting goods up 5.7%, health spending up 1.7% and eating/drinking out up 2.1%.

Among the largest names in retail, as represented by the MVIS U.S. Listed Retail 25 Index, the differences between winners and losers this year is dramatic.The difference separating many of the names into winners and losers is their ability to leverage not only ecommerce, but all channels of marketing to facilitate engagement with their brand.

Retail sales climbed back to record levels in June and continued to grow in July and August - despite painful levels of unemployment and income loss.But the good times will not last much longer: The massive government income support programs that funded consumer spending are ending, while shoppers will need to resume normal household necessities.Absent additional government interventions - which seem increasingly unlikely - retail sales will soon fall again and remain depressed until the pandemic eases and the economy recovers.

AlixPartners is out with a forecast for the 2020 holiday season (defined this year as October through the end of December).The research firm expects an increase in sales of 1.0%

With the release of August Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales.Month-over-month nominal sales in August increased by 0.56%.Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.18%.