SPTM

Several economic studies have shown that the recent trade war has done more harm than good to American manufacturing, actually reducing employment in that sector. It has also depressed US investment, which in turn weighs on economic growth. American businesses and consumers paid around $46 billion from 2018 to 2019 due to tariffs on Chinese imports — virtually none was paid by China. Trade wars appear set to continue for years to come, whoever wins the White House for the next presidential term. This will undoubtedly have a dampening effect on economic growth going forward.

With stocks exuberantly going up a few weeks, then despondently falling the next few weeks, then bouncing back, investing in 2020 feels a lot like riding a roller coaster. That's why it's important for dividend growth and income-oriented investors to focus not on asset prices but rather on business fundamentals and the stability of cash flows. The list of five dividend stocks includes two drugmakers, a producer of food ingredients, a midstream oil & gas MLP, and a suburban shopping center REIT.

In a series of recent articles, I have covered the top 50 stocks in the large-cap S&P 500, the mid-cap S&P 400, and the small-cap S&P 600.Those three indices cover 1500 stocks, but there are still more than 2200 listed U.S. companies not represented in those indices.Some companies are outside of the S&P 1500 because they are small.  Some large companies have not hit the S&P index criteria, including profitability measures.Among the outsized gainers in 3Q were alternative energy firms and biotech companies as about 2% of U.S.-listed stocks doubled in value on the quarter.By looking at the tails of the return distribution, I believe that we can gain greater insight into portfolio return drivers.

In a series of recent articles, I have covered the bottom 50 stocks in the large-cap S&P 500, the mid-cap S&P 400, and the small-cap S&P 600.Those three indices cover 1500 stocks, but there are still more than 2200 listed U.S. companies not represented in those indices.Some companies are outside of the S&P 1500 because they are small. Some large companies have not hit the S&P index criteria, including profitability measures.Perhaps unsurprisingly then, the 50 worst performing stocks outside the S&P 1500 tended to be small and unprofitable.By looking at the tails of the return distribution, I believe that we can gain greater insight into portfolio return drivers.

SPDR Portfolio Total Stock Market ETF (SPTM) - $0.1416.30-Day SEC Yield of 1.73% as of Sept. 18.Payable Sep 24; for shareholders of record Sep 22; ex-div Sep 21.

"Japanification" is the process of other countries' economies becoming like that of Japan: flatlined, with little to no growth or inflation and interest rates stuck at zero indefinitely. Because of the Monetary Death Spiral process that I've described elsewhere, many countries around the world are undergoing the process of Japanification. With interest rates now stuck at zero for the long haul and the Fed focused on employment above all else, the US has now completed the process. I go through nine economic metrics to show how the United States is walking down the path of Japan.

Ample economic research has shown that excessive debt, above a certain threshold of GDP, begins to drag down economic growth. US national debt is now well above that threshold. But ballooning debt, in itself, is not the fundamental issue. It is the result of the core problem. In the coming decades, the US economy will be asked to do the impossible: grow faster even while the government extracts more of its resources. There are no easy solutions. There are only painful trade-offs.

Recently, the Federal Reserve confirmed a widely expected shift in monetary policy that will result in near-zero interest rates for the foreseeable future. From their perspective, this stance is justified based on evidence that the U.S. economic recovery will be long, slow, and halting. A full recovery won't come until government safety measures are lifted, and those will likely remain (in some areas, at least) until a vaccine is discovered and distributed. Small business destruction and job losses will not be quickly and easily remedied, and an output gap is projected to persist throughout the decade. Real assets with strong cash flows are extremely attractive in this environment.