SPSM

In response to the global COVID-19 recession, central banks across the world unleashed synchronized monetary stimulus to backstop the economy.With the lack of inflation pressure, and higher tolerance for inflation overshoots, central banks globally are likely to keep interest rates low for a long time.Today’s low-interest rate environment creates some challenges for investors looking for adequate returns through bonds, but great opportunities for borrowers and equity investors.

Investors whose sole focus is on returns fail because they don’t structure a portfolio that properly accounts for risk.Growth in America has been going down over time, due in part to both demographics and regulation; going forward, we’re unlikely to see GDP numbers above 3%.We can’t see what’s on the other side of the election, and two weeks from now things could be different, but right now, the market is pricing a Biden win.

The dollar is falling against most of the world's currencies today.Sterling and the Norwegian krone are leading the majors higher.The Chinese yuan extended its gains and is now at the best level since July 2018.In Asia, most of the large markets gained, but China, India, and a handful of smaller bourses were sold.Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off for the third day and the sixth session in the past seven.

We like higher-yielding credit amid low rates, and see corporate restructurings offering growth and potential return diversification for private credit investors.A pickup in COVID-19 cases may weigh on mobility and activity in the near term, but we see this wave of infections as much shallower than the spring one.A spate of purchasing managers’ index data this week could shed light on any potential impact that increased virus infections has had on activity.

Expect pre-election volatility in the averages to increase from here.Tech sector stocks are vulnerable to additional shake-outs.Broad market internal strength should prevent a serious decline, however.

The central banks have increased their assets by 38.5% in the last twelve months, which has had a profound effect on both the bond and equity markets globally.They have pushed down interest rates for their nations, in an attempt to control the debt of their respective governments, as all of the governments borrowed more and more money to support their economies during the pandemic.The ECB and the BOJ have pushed their yields below the once-unthinkable line of zero. The Fed may also be motivated into negative interest rates if the Democrats win the upcoming US elections.

European bond prices have an unmistakable correlation to European COVID infections.The strategy of ensuring the banking system remains well capitalized - while letting market-based finance run wild - may have plausible theoretical underpinnings.The "penalty rate" issue is key to mitigating moral hazard.

There are continuing political and pandemic stories that could dominate the news cycle at any time.Many of the normal economic indicators are not helpful in the wake of the COVID lockdown decline.Retail sales improved 1.9% in September, beating expectations of a 0.6% gain and August’s 0.6% increase.Initial jobless claims increased to 898K versus expectations of 830K and the prior week’s 845K.Technical measures are reasonably strong. Trends remain intact and support levels have generally not been violated.