SIJ

Macro: Durable Goods

Durable goods peaked in the short term in june. The $16b drop in durable goods orders is from a drop in non defense aircraft orders. Aircraft orders are significant. Growth in the less volatile capex series is still positive. We are slowing from the best growth of the last 30 years.

The Economic Downturn Is Underway, But Expect A Rebound In 2024

Economic resilience continues to be the theme of 2023, says christopher yates. The us economy is neither in recessionary territory nor expanding, he says. Economic growth remains robust, but we are likely to see a slow but steady deterioration in hard economic data in the coming months. Longer-term leading indicators suggest a rebound in growth in the second half of 2024.

Some U.S. Economy Big Picture Charts

Six charts that look at the u.s. Economy from a big picture perspective. I don't find anything sinister or strange in these charts. I see an economy that is growing moderately (perhaps only modestly) i see a healthy labor market, an equity market that is rising and a dollar that has been fortified.

Are The Headlines About Factory Orders Messing With Us Again?

Unfilled orders rose to an all-time high of $1.36 trillion in october, according to the census bureau. Manufacturing orders plunged by the most since april 2020. The drop in new orders was mostly caused by a plunge in nondefense aircraft orders. But other industries saw record manufacturing orders.

The Fourth Quarter Started Slow, But It May Finish Strong

Home prices in las vegas declined at a 1.9% annual pace in october. Consumer spending slowed to a 0.7% pace in september, according to the commerce department. The fed's beige book revealed that consumers pulled back on discretionary spending. The fourth quarter gdp may come in better than first feared.

Weekly Report: what happened at SIJ last week (1127-1201)?

Global Factory Job Losses Continue As Demand Downturn Persists In November

Global manufacturing business conditions worsened for a fifteenth successive month in november. New export orders for goods falling globally for a twenty-first straight month. Europe saw the steepest downturn, while production returned to growth in mainland china. Global factory output edges lower again in november amid further demand fall.

US Factories Report Job Losses As Demand Deteriorates, But Price Pressures Weaken

Us manufacturing business conditions worsened in november according to s&p global's us pmi survey. Manufacturers cut payroll numbers for a second month in a row, leading to a back-to-back drop in employment. Weak demand and reduced wage pressures resulted in lower input cost and selling price inflation in november. Output barely rose as new order inflows deteriorated and backlogs of orders depleted.