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2.8% Growth Vs. 28% Recession Risk: The New Economic Landscape In 2024

Gross domestic product last quarter increased by 2.8%, a hair above average long-term growth. The Federal Reserve may have pulled off a soft landing in their fight against inflation. The Wall Street Journal survey puts the risk of recession over the next 12 months at just 28%. Real GDP grew at 2.7% in Q2 2024.

More Good Inflation News: David Berson's Economic Brief

Inflation Remained Low In June

Vanguard spotlights opportunities in the bond market as rates are expected to decline

Vanguard spotlights opportunities in the bond market as rates are expected to decline. Inflation has cooled to levels that would allow for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in 2024. The shorter end of the U.S. 2 Year Treasury yield has fallen 5 basis points to 4.37%.

Rates Spark: Euro Rates Eyeing Quicker ECB Cuts

Yield curve between 2s/10s comes to closest level of becoming un-inverted in 9 months

Yield curve between 2s/10s comes to closest level of becoming un-inverted in 9 months on Thursday. The inverted yield curve between the U.S. 2 Year Treasury yield and the 10 year Treasury yield reached its closest level to becoming unverted in nine months. The 2s10s curve continues to steepen and is now 14 basis points away from un- inverting. The inversion took hold in July 2022.

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts. GDP grew an annualised 2.8% in second-quarter 2024. Core PCE deflator rose 2.9% annualised versus the 2.7% expectation.

Rates Spark: Weak PMIs Help Build The Case For Rate Cuts

Weaker eurozone PMIs have helped markets price in two more ECB rate cuts for 2024. US manufacturing PMI slipped back below 50 and new home sales weakened, but services PMI edged higher. We continue to view the environment as prone to more risk-off, higher volatility and lower market rates.