REW

Investors have been on a wild ride over the past week as tech stocks plunged, dragging down major global indexes with them.Some are suggesting this is the start of another dramatic sell-off, similar to the spring of 2000, when the “tech bubble” burst. I highly doubt that.I think of this rout not so much as a correction, but as a digestion given that the NASDAQ Composite rose more than 60% from its March bottom in the course of less than six months.

Market swings are like pendulums. They always go too far.But just like a pendulum, it inevitably swings back, and this time is no different.Investors using fundamental arguments to judge this market have been off for 5 years now, but the sentiment indicators, the best judge of market turning points, are flashing red.And just like the Buffett quote, what the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end. The argument for tech stocks to keep surging driven by low-interest rates are no longer strong because valuations have already reflected low rates.Given the rising anecdotal evidence of sheer greed and participation from retail, we don't think this time is different and this tech bubble won't last.

Markets tend to be more inefficient in the short term and more efficient in the long term.One way of thinking about this is that the information we obtain in the short term tends to be incomplete. So, investors have to make informed guesses about market prices.To be clear, this is different from the tech bubble in that most of the firms seeing the price appreciation are earning real profits.