RETL

In this article I will walk you through the commonly used but wrong way to think about volatility decay.We'll then walk through an example of volatility decay with realistic numbers.Afterwards, we'll build a simple mathematical model to calculate volatility decay from first principles.We'll compare the model with back-test simulations done on portfoliovisualizer.com.

AlixPartners is out with a forecast for the 2020 holiday season (defined this year as October through the end of December).The research firm expects an increase in sales of 1.0%

Nominal retail sales were up +0.6% in August. Meanwhile, July's reading was revised downward by -0.3%.Real retail sales did establish a new record high, above any reading from before the pandemic.Because sales have made a full recovery, I expect employment and hours worked to continue to show gains for the next several months.

With the release of August Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales.Month-over-month nominal sales in August increased by 0.56%.Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.18%.

August Retail Sales reported with data on Inventory/Sales ratio from July.While a lagging indicator and not historically a good indicator of future economic activity, the July 2020 report emerges as underscoring a unique forecast for accelerated future economic activity.Total Business Inventories are reported at historic lows of 1.23, only slightly above the June level of 1.22.

Century 21, the famous New York discount store chain, has become the latest retail casualty of the coronavirus pandemic, saying it would file for bankruptcy and close all 13 of

US retail sales growth has been slowing on a sequential basis.Low inventory levels in autos have reduced consumer choice and caused deferrals. The previously hot home-building sector looks to be cooling off.Employment and disposable income is weak, the savings rate is elevated, and added stimulus has disappeared.