PVI

Muni Bond Perspectives On The 2020 Election

In years with presidential elections, we take a deeper dive into how the national election could impact state and local governments.Political risk is also an important component of our analysis, as the political party makeup of the executive and legislative branches can have a large impact on municipal bonds.We think it is unlikely we'll see any additional aid ahead of the election, but post-election we think the potential rises, particularly if Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins in the US presidential race.Regardless of the November election outcome, we are prepared to take advantage of any changes to the muni bond market where we see potential investment opportunities.

Muni Bonds Turn Toward The Election

While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6-7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer.A higher marginal rate should also flatten the muni yield curve over time as the demand for longer-dated paper increases because of the benefits it provides on a taxable equivalent yield.More fiscal stimulus, more deficits, and an immediate infrastructure program are all strong possibilities if we get the Blue Wave that sweeps the White House, House, and Senate all into the Democratic column.

Our 'Borrower's Paradise' Continues

In U.S. high yield bonds we find the riskiest of credits.I have some concerns about municipal bonds and am particularly concerned about municipal pension bonds.Our 'Borrower's Paradise' is also good news for many leveraged ETFs and closed-end funds.

Muni Haircuts

Municipal bonds are illiquid and tax-exempt and thus well targeted at very wealthy high-income individuals who face high tax rates.Given the racial disparity in wealth, it would be astounding if the disparity in municipal bond holding were not very large as well.To forestall a bankruptcy, you do not just lend money for current operations - you end up taking on past debts.

Muni Bond Defaults Remain Rare Through 2019

Municipal defaults and bankruptcies remain rare overall, even though they may have become more common over the last 10 years.At the end of 2019, the median rating for U.S. municipal credits had risen to Aa2 (2018: Aa3).We still believe that municipal bonds remain important to the core strategy of constructing an individual portfolio.